I think I'm much less optimistic than Steve. I share Itō Atsuo's view that Japan is moving beyond 'distrust in politics' to 'despair in politics'. The only chance for political stabilisation under the DPJ will come with a new PM and cabinet that accommodates both the opposition inside and outside the DPJ - which would mean the end of the party modernisers and the policy reformers, and the return of some power over party/policy to Ozawa as well as some accommodation of the LDP/opposition parties (an extremely difficult proposition, given they have diametrically opposing views about the DPJ's manifesto).

The alternative? Some form of party realignment? A Lower House election, with a highly unpredictable outcome, except for the electoral certainty of DPJ decimation? It's a mess whichever way you look at it.

Would anyone else like to chance their arm with a prediction?

Aurelia George Mulgan
UNSW Canberra
Australia