Dear Professor Cave,

In answer to your second question, you might want to check the work of Prof. Amy Catalinac on how the pork barrel politics and vote trading between the LDP and Komeito work to keep the opposition parties in perpetual opposition. I don't know if her work on the subject has been published yet, but I have heard her talk about her research in a few recent webinars and found it really illuminating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeQG2ScAPMc <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeQG2ScAPMc>
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeQG2ScAPMc>

Amy Catalinac, "How Pork-Barrel Politics Holds Japan's Governing Coalition Together" <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeQG2ScAPMc>
["Show More" for timestamps] Amy Catalinac on "How Pork-Barrel Politics Holds Japan's Governing Coalition Together." Professor Catalinac is one of the leadin...
www.youtube.com


Robert Hoppens
Associate Professor
Department of History
University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:* ssj-forum-bounces@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp <ssj-forum-bounces@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> on behalf of SSJ-Forum Moderator <ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp>
*Sent:* Tuesday, May 25, 2021 21:03
*To:* ssj-forum@cal.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp <ssj-forum@cal.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp>
*Subject:* [SSJ: 11453] Japan's opposition parties and the pandemic
From: Peter Cave <Peter.Cave@manchester.ac.uk>

Date: 2021/05/24

Today, Jochi political scientist Koichi Nakano published an opinion
piece in the Guardian about the Japanese government's approach to the
Tokyo Olympics (In Japan most people want to cancel the Olympics, but
the government won't listen | Koichi Nakano | The Guardian
<https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/24/japan-cancel-olympics-coronavirus <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/24/japan-cancel-olympics-coronavirus>>).
The article is very critical of the Suga government (with reason, in my
view), and notes the high level of public dissatisfaction. It does
strike me as very strange, however, that Professor Nakano makes no
mention whatsoever of opposition parties - what they might be saying, or
what the level of support for them is. It is even stranger, given that a
general election is scheduled to be held in Japan later this year. I
find it hard to think of any other major democratic country where
analysis would not touch on this subject.

The last opinion poll that I actually saw reported (by the Asahi on May
17) showed that alongside the record low approval rate of 33% for the
Suga cabinet, 35% of voters said they would vote for the LDP in the PR
section if a national election were held now, against 17% who would vote
for the CDP. In other words, double the support for the LDP than for its
main rival, despite record-low disapproval for the government. (And this
is the PR section, where votes are purely for party. The LDP would
probably do better in the SMD section.) See: Survey: Suga Cabinet
approval rating ties record low of 33% : The Asahi Shimbun
<http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14351623 <http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14351623>>

This makes me wonder two things. (1) What have opposition parties been
saying about what changes need to be made, regarding the Olympics or
more widely regarding the shortcomings in Japan's systems that have been
revealed by the pandemic? (2) Why have opposition parties apparently
been able to capitalise so little on the Suga government's pretty woeful
performance?

Thoughts and analysis are welcome.

Peter Cave
Senior Lecturer in Japanese Studies
Research Postgraduate Director, Modern Languages and Cultures
SALC, University of Manchester
Samuel Alexander Building
Oxford Road
Manchester M13 9PL
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)161 275 3195
www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/ <http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/>
<http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/ <http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/>>