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April 27, 2021

[SSJ: 11417] Battle Over Climate Change in Tokyo

From: Richard Katz <rbkatz@ix.netcom.com>

Date: 2021/04/22

There's a big policy battle going on in Tokyo over whether to do what needs to be done in order to fulfill Suga's promise of net zero by 2050. What Suga announces, or fails to announce, at the virtual climate summit of 40 countries beginning Thursday will be the next signal in this fight. For example, Suga pledged to end sales of gasoline vehicles by 2035 and METI in its "Green Growth" agenda issued in December redefined electric cars to include hybrids. The Environment Ministry wants Japan to up its planned cut in carbon emissions from the current 26% reduction from 2013--a reduction widely criticize--to 45%, while METI wants just 35% and the White House is pushing for 50%. Suga has pledged a fundamental reversal of policy on coal (with no details) but METI wants to keep coal at 26% of Japan's electricity in 2030 when it issues the new Strategic Energy Plan in June; that's no change from the target set in 2018. There are similar splits in the business world. 200 leading companies in the Japan Climate Initiative called on Tokyo to pledge an emissions reduction of 45-50%, while Keidanren is pushing to retain coal.

I believe Suga is for real on this issue, based on talking to contacts. How much power he has to get his way vis-à-vis METI , Keidanren. and others is in question, given his polling numbers. But the news here is not the resistance to taking aggressive action. The news is the growth within the corporate world of those who favor of taking strong action. Plus, the election of Biden is having its impact, bolstering those in Japan who already wanted stronger action.

I've written a piece for the /Foreign Affairs/ website on the state of play and how we'd measure a real commitment. Here is the no-paywall URL. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/redeem/rdp-a4Eil74 <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/redeem/rdp-a4Eil74>

Richard Katz

Approved by ssjmod at 12:33 PM