Looking at the election results the morning after, I have three major takeaways from this election.

First, Abe’s gamble on calling an election now obviously paid off. Despite his strong personal negatives with the public, he was able to limit the number of lost LDP seats to just 8 seats (291 to 283, lower than my low estimate when adjusting for the reduction in the total number of seats; as of 10:30am on the 23rd). Overall, the coalition lost 14 seats, with Komeito absorbing many of the losses this time. Their two-thirds majority has been reduced to a razor thin margin, but they still have it. Abe’s timing was good, and he was very lucky that the DP disintegrated just after he called a general election; Koike’s missteps helped too, as did the typhoon. The question is whether this victory is going to be enough for Abe to win a third term, given how personally unpopular he has become, and the fact that his personal scandals are unlikely to go away anytime soon. The other question is whether Abe really will be able to make much headway in constitutional reform as a result of this election? It is unlikely that Koike is going to sacrifice her own political interests to cooperate with Abe on this, and Komei remains as cautious as ever about constitutional reform.

My second major take away is that for the first time since 2012 the leading opposition party in Japan has a credible and popular party label. This election allowed a clean break from the badly tarnished DPJ/DP label. It seems to me that the CDP is the most remarkable comeback story in recent Japanese political history (can anyone think of any competitors?). In less than three weeks this party went from seeming to be the last refuge of rejects and losers to being the main opposition party, with arguably the most popular leader in Japanese politics today at its head, Edano. Assuming he doesn’t have any scandals, the CDP now has a chance to grow significantly, starting with former DP members like Okada, who ran as independents, and are likely to drift into the CDP. Some Kibou no tou members, especially those who publicly challenged Koike on her constitutional reform and security policy stances will probably to do likewise. With a coherent message as well as a strong party label, the CDP has a good chance to make gains in future elections against the LDP, especially if Abe is still in charge.

My third major take away is that in some respects this election resembles the 1996 election, with Kibou no tou playing the role of Shinshin tou and the CDP taking the role of the nascent DPJ. Given how badly Kibou no tou did (in most districts even in Tokyo their candidates finished third), I wonder whether that party has staying power. The challenge for the CDP going forward, like the challenge the DPJ faced in the past, maybe how it can absorb conservative opposition politicians without diluting its core platform or drifting away from its core base of support.

Best Regards,

Paul Midford