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April 25, 2013

[SSJ: 8046] Abe waffles on whether Japan 'invaded' China, Korea

From: Richard Katz
Date: 2013/04/25

In answer to a question in the Diet about the Murayama statement, Shinzo Abe stated:

> "The definition of what constitutes aggression has
yet to be
> established in academia or in the international
community," Abe said.
> "Things that happened between nations will look
differently depending
> on which side you view them from."
>
> At a meeting of the same lawmakers a day earlier, he
said that his
> administration has not necessarily embraced the
Murayama statement in
> its entirety.
>
Asahi translates his word as "aggression" while the Korean press has used "invasion."

It's front-page news in Korea. However, so far, I've found only one article in English from the major Japanese press. Not surprisingly, it's the Asahi at
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201
304240082 There is also a Jiji press piece citing Suga as saying that the Koreans misunderstood Abe's comments about "invasion" and took them out of context, at
http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0000160404
printed in Yomiuri's English edition.

I wonder if Japanese "google news" would come up with anything more.
English-language google does not.

This may be a repeat of the Japanese press' refusal to cover the Kurt Campbell interview with Kyodo in which he said that the State Dept.
warned Japan not to nationalize the Senkakus because China would have a very strong reaction.

The really strange thing is the self-justifying
worldview:

> Abe, who has long been known to have hawkish
leanings, was supposed to
> refrain from discussing his conservative view of
history ahead of the
> Upper House election in July so as not to make waves
in the diplomatic
> arena.
>
> But the shift shown by these remarks reflects his
distrust of South
> Korea and China, sources say....
>
> In what his aides described as "a show of his
intention not to
> personally visit," Abe made an offering of branches
of the sacred
> evergreen sakaki tree, which is used in Shinto
rituals, on April 21.
>
> The gesture was meant to avert the expected backlash
from South Korea
> and China....
>
> To protest, South Korea canceled a trip by foreign
minister Yun
> Byung-se to Japan scheduled for this weekend.
>
> The reaction reportedly led Abe to suspect that Japan
will get caught
> up in South Korea's bluster despite the
considerations it has shown to
> Seoul.
>
> "It became clear that giving consideration is
pointless," an aide to
> Abe described his thoughts. "(South Korea) will
protest anyway no
> matter what Japan does."
>
And then there is this.

> Aso dismissed Seoul's strong response in a news
conference on April
> 23, saying reactions overseas will not have a
significant overall
> impact on diplomacy


If Abe-Aso & Co. really believe this, this is just as blind as the Noda-Gaimusho view that China would not react to the nationalization of the Senkakus.

There still remains the question of why these guys are doing this now.
My three hypotheses are:

1) Abe is riding so high in the polls (76% approval in
Nikkei) that he thinks he can get away with it.
Hopefully, pride goeth before a fall

2) He thinks the public will be pissed at any Chinese-Korean reaction (.e.g. if China sending more vessels into Senkakus waters is seen as a reaction to the comments and visits) and that Japanese backlash against China-Korea will help the LDP, discredit the DPJ, and increase fissures inside DPJ. If this is the calculation, we'll see if this is correct or a big miscalculation

3) He thinks that cooperation with China-ROK will make no difference on NK behavior anyway, so there is no diplomatic downside.

Anyone with good speculation or any actual knowledge?


Richard Katz
The Oriental Economist Report

Approved by ssjmod at 11:21 AM