In the long rally of interesting exchanges on this topic, Greg Noble raised a point that passed relatively (and regrettably) unnoticed but poses a serious problem to democratic politics in Japan: why do PM approval rates drop like a rock, ensuring short tenured governments, given the frequency of elections of either House? Low approval rates guarantees unstable leadership especially with a national election approaching every couple of years.

Greg has cited scholars who are tenaciously grapping with the phenomenon empirically, but none as far as I know has come up with a definite answer.
And, I don't have one either. The reason I thought it's a good idea to ask if anyone has one.

The rest of this post is just idle afterthought.

Watching the RNC did remind me of the number of GOP presidential hopefuls whose popularity soared and dropped in a matter of months. Why? My best answer is that they were revealed to be incompetent, scandalous, or too wacky before they got anywhere, hence leaving the most uncharismatic but probably sound candidate standing. When I say "incompetent, scandalous, or too wacky," of course I am not talking about leaders of the DJP but I do feel an eerie resemblance.

If the analogy works for Japanese politics, mind you I am not claiming so, it seems to me the fundamental problem with Japanese politics is the leadership selection process within the major parties.

Why are we getting a succession of PMs who were not qualified to assume the office? To mimic the speeches at Tampa, "don't the Japanese voters deserve better?"
One thing seems clear to me: political instability, partisan chaos, and short-longevity governments are the new normal since electoral reform and tinkering with the electoral system ain't the solution.

I fear that the media and scholars are running around wondering who's going to be the leader of the major parties and who's going to win/loose the next election, while shying away from the more serious problem of our political system. A problem that needs to be addressed and requires serious political reform. I cannot help thinking that "the politics of indecisiveness" goes beyond a fancy catchword and points to far more grave pathologies of Japanese political institutions that is eroding Japanese democratic politics. I hope I won't be accused of fiddling polisci tunes while Tokyo burned.
But, on the other hand, it might be just male menopause, and there is nothing extraordinary to worry out. Politics is always suboptimal, you see.

Nobuhiro Hiwatari
Institute of Social Sciences