I would echo some of what John Campbell said the other day, and question whether what Noda has done in regards to raising the consumption tax is really so irrational, even in terms of the narrow goal of winning reelection.

First, I don't think raising this tax is nearly as unpopular as some on this forum seem to think. In a recent NTV poll, a razor thin majority of 50.4% opposed raising the tax (versus 36% who support raising the tax, the rest being undecided). Moreover, I would question whether this is really a stable majority.
Earlier polling showed that pluralities verging on majorities support raising the consumption tax in the abstract. My understanding of these poll results is that voters have been saying that they support raising the tax in the abstract, but not this particular proposal. In the NTV poll, over 36% of opponents of the tax increase based their opposition on the fact that the number of Diet members had not been lowered at the same time, suggesting that if Noda had pushed this reform through at the same time, he might have reduced this razor thin majority well below a majority, if not below a plurality.

Second, the twisted Diet may have turned into an unanticipated blessing for Noda. By forcing him to get the LDP and Komei to come on board, Noda has effectively neutralized the consumption tax as an election issue vis-a-vis the main opposition party and Komei. The only parties that can run against the DPJ on this issue now are Minna no tou, Ozawa's party, Genzei Nippon, or perhaps Hashimoto's parties, and it is not clear how big a challenge any of these parties can pose (that depends how effectively they can organize and field candidates).　　It's also worth noting that the Noda cabinet support ratings have been fairly stable around 25%, which is not high (and is lower than the support rate for the consumption tax increase), but not bad when compared to those of other recent cabinets after a year in office.

Paul Midford
NTNU