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April 24, 2012

[SSJ: 7417] Re: A couple of reasons why the electricity has kept flowing despite the nuclear shutdowns

From: Brown, James David
Date: 2012/04/24

If I understand correctly, Jun Okumura would like me to provide examples of energy projects that have been developed by Japan and Russia but subsequently scuppered by the countries' poor political relations.
However surely the whole point is that, if the territorial dispute and negative mutual perceptions are indeed the problem, many such projects will not even have reached the drawing board.

As for his suggestion that "we [the Japanese] don't have to take a softer line on the territorial dispute because the Russians, unlike the South Koreans with regard to Takeshima, could care less about what we think about it.", I'm afraid I can't agree. In fact, I think there are strong indications that the Russian political elite takes an active interest in changes in the Japanese government's position vis-a-vis the Southern Kurils/Northern Territories. In particular, a great deal of attention is given to language use. For instance, the predominant view in Russia is that the recent deterioration in Japanese-Russian relations was caused, not by President Medvedev's Nov. 2010 visit to Kunashir/i, but by Japanese leaders' resort to uncompromising and confrontational rhetoric. This trend is seen as having begun with PM Aso's use of the term 'occupation' to describe Russia's presence on the islands when speaking in parliament in spring 2009.
Similarly, it is notable that there were a number of articles in the Russian press at the beginning of March
2012 on the perceived significance of the DPJ's decision to abandon such language, opting to replace 'illegal occupation' with the softer sounding 'held without legal basis.' More generally, I think this interest reflects a broader current concern within the Russian elite to improve relations with Japan so as to attract investment to the Russian Far East and help counterbalance China. In this regard, it is worth noting Putin's comment in March that 'We very much want to close completely this territorial problem with Japan, and want to do so in a way that is acceptable to both countries and to the peoples of both countries.'
(my own quick translation).

James Brown

Approved by ssjmod at 11:03 AM