« [SSJ: 7245] Re: Why Noda is pushing a tax increase | Main | [SSJ: 7247] [Temple ICAS Event] 23 March 2012: US presidential elections and Republican primaries: Alex Brideau and Paul Sracic »

March 5, 2012

[SSJ: 7246] Re: A couple of reasons why the electricity has keptflowing despite the nuclear shutdowns

From: Paul Midford
Date: 2012/03/05

It's hard to conclude that the Japanese public would not or has not already responded to many of the externalities and trade-offs regarding whether to keep or dump nuclear power in the short-run. Of course, they might not perceive these in the way an expert might, but that doesn't stop them from having and acting on their opinions. This is already what they have done.
Not only has the Japanese public turned against nuclear power since last April, they have also indicated a willingness to pay for this shift. Specifically, approximately two-thirds of Japanese respondents have told Asahi Shimbun pollsters that they are willing to pay more for electricity for the sake of promoting renewable energy. To be sure, it's not clear from this result how much they would be willing to pay, but given the scale of the majority it is likely that it would take a large price hike to par this down to a minority.
Moreover, Japanese have already been living with the short-run externalities of shuting down nuclear power plants. In most areas consumers have been made to reduce their electricity consumption by between 10 and 15%. Again, an Asahi poll indicates strong support for continued conservation measures. Even while cutting back on their electricity consumption the Japanese public has nonetheless become more, not less, opposed to nuclear energy, with more than 5 million signing the petition for a referendum on nuclear power in Kansai.
A pollster should ask about the trade-off between keeping nuclear power plants off-line and greater CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels in the short-run. Given that the turn toward opposing nuclear power has coincided with widespread media reports about increasing reliance on fossil fuels for producing electricity, one can surmise that there is a growing willingness to accept this cost in the short-run for the sake of public safety.
In the long-run, there is a strong expectation that Japan can make the transition to renewable energy:
over 75% of Japanese have consistently said so in several Asahi Shimbun polls.
The question doesn't ask for a definition of the long-run, but clearly it will take several decades of large-scale investment to build a true smart-grid, large-scale storage capacity (think hydro pump-storage dams and the more recently commercialized fly-wheel storage technology), not to mention a good mix of wind (off-shore as well as on-shore), solar, geo-thermal, and perhaps other sources. Japan has lots of untapped potential in all these areas and although Japan seems crowded when viewed from Tokyo or perhaps Kansai, when viewed from Hokkaido, Hokuriku, Shikoku, etc., Japan is not so densely populated: there is more and more space available for renewables in rapidly depopulating rural areas, and real local interest in renewable energy (and that does not even include Japan's vast EEZ). Japan's new Feed-in-Tariff is a good start in this direction, although the issue of grid control and reform remains a pressing issue. We will have to see whether Edano's
new panel on grid privatization makes progress.

Best Regards,

Paul Midford

Approved by ssjmod at 11:22 AM