Paul Midford writes: "...nuclear power's function might be confined to a summer back-up source for the next two years or so until it's no longer needed."

You crank up the fossil fuel turbines for that--it takes nuclear plants three weeks, says Paul Scalise, and who's to doubt him?--and if the locals can stand nuclear power plants in the summer and winter, they should be able to stand it year round.

"Nonetheless, this is a big change in public opinion that I would argue is being driven by the demonstration effect of surviving without nuclear power."

I agree with Paul Midford on the existence of a demonstration effect being in play. But ultimately, the battle will be fought in the trenches, prefecture by prefecture, municipality by municipality. National public opinion is an important backdrop but ultimately not a key factor, or so I think.

Now many countries run on fossil fuel and/or hydroelectricity and they're cool with that. And Japan could go all deadlife and renewables too. But in the meantime, there are the fuel costs. And the nuclear power plants that have to be written off. And decomissioned. With. Lot's. And. Lot's. Of. Money. The mainland EPCOs might as well turn turtle then, and let the stakeholders take a hit. Mainstream politicians don't want to be caught with this mess on their hands, so they'll keep looking for workarounds. And the local communities? They might as well kiss goodbye to their real estate and other tax base and other payoffs that come their way (though to be fair, there will be a lot of business to be had catering to the zenekons swarming over the deconstruction sites). I would be happy to bet a lunch (actually more, but the Japanese authorities might throw the Criminal Code at me if I do) that nuclear power plants will be recommissioned within the calendar year.

Incidentally, on January 23, TEPCO's winter record-high (fingers crossed) peak reached an extraordinary 55GW.
The summer record, which I am too lazy to look up, is in the high 60s. If I were a renewable fan or an LNG supplier, I would pray for that not to happen.