Just one thing, Jun, re your comment:

"He's (i.e. Ozawa's) the only DPJ member with the power to wreck the party".

I think the failed no-confidence motion on 2nd June is evidence that Ozawa's 'wrecking' days are over. What a fizzer that was. You could argue that Ozawa and his group were defanged by Kan's (vague) offer to resign, which the gullible Hatoyama certainly fell for, but then he cared about the fate of the DPJ as a founding member, which is more than you can say for Ozawa. Even then, it's questionable whether Ozawa's group, even if apparently gearing up to vote in favour of the no-confidence motion, would have been prepared to commit collective political suicide by actually going through with it. If the Kan government had fallen and the PM had called a Lower House election, their fate was entirely in the hands of an Ozawa-led 'new party' (and Ozawa's deep pockets). Even Ozawa could see that idea was not a flier. And party realignment (i.e. enticing some defectors from the LDP) was not on the cards either. Early feelers to the LDP did not produce anything gainful. Funny too - Ozawa's supposed to be able to mobilise 120 votes for the current DPJ presidential election, but the figure of 'about 70' was the going rate for those at potentially his disposal for the no-confidence motion. Where did the rest go?
Perhaps it's because people tend to fall away when their jobs are on the line - that's what I concluded from that particular exercise.

Best wishes,

Aurelia George Mulgan
UNSW, Canberra