Dear Ellis and SSJ-Forumites:

Since I have Cox's book in front of me, I'll give you his data on the expansion
of British electoral districts in the 19th Century. The expansion came as each
reform act broadened suffrage: by 50-80% after 1832, by 88% after 1867, and 76%
after 1884. (Cox, p. 126) So, yes, the expansion in the size of districts did
precede the swith from double-member to single-member districts and seems to
have helped bring about the trend toward a more party-oriented electorate.

Remember, though, that this expansion in the size of districts began from very
small numbers. During the period when the greatest movement toward
party-oriented voting was taking place (in the period 1859-1880), almost all
buroughs had 3,000 voters or less. Cox talks about how in the "larger districts"
with 3,000 voters, candidates increasingly had to rely on the party lable and
how this helped bring about an increase in party-oriented voting.

In contrast, in Japan before the reform, candidates needed 60,000 to 100,000
votes to win seats in the Diet! This would already seem to be well over the
threshhold where (given the British example) size would tend to lead to
party-oriented voting. It is unclear to me whether increasing the number of
votes needed to get elected from 60,000-100,000 to 100,000-150,000 (?? does
anyone have an estimate?) as a consequence of the recent electoral reforms will
make that much of a difference. Perhaps the techniques that allowed Japanese
Diet members to campaign based on personal vote strategies when they needed
80,000 votes will work almost as well when they need 120,000. As Ellis points
out, only time and empirical results will tell.

The critical issue with regard to the above may be less the increase in the
number of votes required to win as a result of recent Japanese reforms than it
is the increase in the _proportion_ needed to win. Personal vote strategies may
work better when you need only 15 percent but work less well when you need 45
percent. I too would like to hear from Steve Reed.

Len Schoppa ljs2k[atx]virginia.edu
Department of Government & Foreign Affairs 232 Cabell Hall; University of
Virginia; Charlottesville, VA 22901 (804) 924-3211 Fax (804) 924-3359

[Moderator's Note: The book cited above is Gary Cox's _The Efficient Secret_ .
Also, Professor Reed has perhaps returned from holidays and is being sent a copy
of this post.]