I wrote a couple of posts earlier in the year on the potential impact of a Trump victory on Japan. I have little to add right now. So, I'm just giving you the two URLs plus some additional info. The short version is this. First, it will be a disaster for Japan if Trump implements his promise to impose 60% import tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on everyone else. One reason is that Japan's exports to China and many other Asian countries depend more on their own exports to the US rather than their internal GDP growth. Secondly, the yen will stay weaker under Trump because interest rates will be higher.

            Secondly, some in Japan have the illusion that, as a businessman, he will do what's best for the US economy. The reality is that he will do what's best for his own power and his growing constituency loves his tariffs and other measures, even if they hurt the economy, even if they hurt themselves.

            Thirdly, there has been a massive realignment of voters over the past three decades (and perhaps longer). Trump just extended and amplified the trend. So, whatever the electoral impact of inflation and other short-term trends, Japan has to contend with the ramifications of this realignment in terms of nationalism, isolationism, and protectionism.

For details, see https://richardkatz.substack.com/p/how-trumps-victory-will-impact-japan

Richard Katz

The Contest For Japan's Economic Future