Following Paul Midford's lead, and in the spirit of reviving discussion on Japanese politics on this forum I am sending a piece I wrote last week for a UK based outlet. 

Following Japanese politics from a distance is never easy. I wonder if Japan based colleagues see things differently?

Ian Neary

Emeritus Fellow
St Antony's College and Nissan Institute
Oxford University

What happened

In bye-elections held on Sunday three members of the opposition party CDP were elected in constituencies that were previously represented by a member of the LDP. This seriously undermines PM Kishida's domestic credibility both within the LDP and nation. It is now unlikely that he will be re-elected party leader in September. For the first time in over ten years there is serious discussion of the possibility of a change of government following the next general election. 

 

Analysis

Research published at the end of 2023 revealed that many senior members of factions within the LDP benefitted from unreported kickbacks of 'slush funds' received at faction fund raising parties. This included the biggest faction previously led by former PM Abe Shinzo and the faction which supports Kishida. Following subsequent investigations some LDP members have been prosecuted, others have resigned but there is a widespread suspicion that not everything has yet been revealed despite PM Kishida's promises of greater transparency. His response so far has included insisting of the dissolution of intraparty factions - five of the six factions have agreed to disband - and the introduction of legislation which will introduce robust external auditing measures both for political revenue and expenditures and toughen penalties for lawmakers involved in wrongdoing. The opposition parties have criticised the pace and ambition of the reforms. Both ruling and opposition parties portrayed these by-elections as the opportunity for the electoral to pass judgement.

In Nagasaki 3 the incumbent LDP was a former member of the Abe faction who had been convicted over the 'slush fund scandal'. The constituency boundaries will change at the next general election meaning that whoever won would only serve for a short period, so the LDP decided not run a candidate. It was a competition between the CDP candidate and one from the JIP (Japan Innovation Party, Nippon Ishin no Kai). The JIP has struggled to win support outside the Osaka area and once more failed.

In Shimane 3, a rural constituency, it was a straight fight between the LDP candidate and that of the main opposition party the CDP. This was a 'must win' seat for Kishida and he visited the area twice during the campaign as did several other LDP leaders. The CDP candidate won by a margin of over 25,000 votes.

In Tokyo 15 the election was triggered by the conviction of the former LDP Diet member, a former justice minister, in a separate vote buying scandal. The LDP decided against running a candidate there too. There were nine candidates in total of whom five had a reasonable prospect of election. The JIP candidate came third. One candidate, Ototake Hirotada was strongly supported by Koike Yuriko, governor of Tokyo, and had previously stood with LDP backing. He came fifth. The seat was won by the CDP candidate.

Turnout in each constituency was the lowest ever suggesting widespread distrust or lack of interest in the political process.

The term in office of Kenta Izumi leader of the CDP expires in November 2024. His election record until this weekend included defeats in five by-elections and the loss of 6 seats in the 2022 upper house election. A poor performance this time would have his re-selection unlikely, but he is secure in his post for now. Each CDP candidate in these campaigns was supported by the JCP and one interpretation of the results is that the LDP can be defeated even in areas of traditional strength when the opposition parties field a single candidate. The question is whether or how many such strategies can be negotiated in the run up to the next general election at the constituency level. However, the possibility of a change of government taking place i.e. the LDP ceasing to be the main party in power following the next general election is being discussed seriously for the first time in over ten years. 

Had the results given any scope for optimism it is possible the PM Kishida would have called a snap election following the end of the current Diet session possibly on 7 July to coincide with the TMG governor election. However, given the prospect of losing large numbers of seats there is strong opposition to that move within the party. Over the past few days, the PM has repeatedly said that he is not thinking of calling an election. 

More likely is that he will wait until the end of the current Diet session in mid-June and then announce a new cabinet line-up and change the party executive to reinforce his support within the party and refresh the image of his administration. His campaign for the party leadership election which will take place in September will require him to convince the party membership and his Diet colleagues that he is the person best placed to take the party into the next general election. The dissolution of the factions has made it more difficult for opposition to mobilise against him.

For the moment political attention will turn to focus on the election of the governor of Tokyo which will take place on 7 July. Koike Yuriko invested heavily in supporting Ototake to no avail but she will almost certainly stand for re-election for a third term and so far, there is no rival candidate who has a plausible chance of beating her. 

The lessons for the main parties of the results of Sunday's elections are:

LDP needs to recognise its crisis of credibility. Can it regain voter trust by the time of the next general election which must take place before the end of October 2025?

CDP Izumi's position as leader is secure but he needs to work out a strategy of collaboration with the smaller opposition parties at the constituency level if they are to erode the LDP/Komeito majority.

 

JIP efforts to expand its base beyond the Osaka region are clearly struggling making it less likely to replace the CDP as the largest opposition party at the next election and suggesting the need for more collaboration.

JCP support for CDP candidates can be crucial but how far can the two parties agree on either electoral strategies or policy issues without alienating their support bases?

 

What next

A snap election in July although still possible is now unlikely.  October 2024 is more likely when the LDP has either a new leader or has reaffirmed its faith in Kishida as its leader.

Although he is unpopular within the party, moves to 'dump Kishida' are likely to be postponed until the LDP leadership election to be held in September.

Following his return from his France, Brazil and Paraguay this week Kishida will press ahead with the introduction of legislation to tighten controls on political expenses in an effort to regain voter trust. 

Kishida will seek to refresh the image of his administration with a cabinet re-shuffle and change in the party senior leadership at the end of the current Diet session in mid-June.

On 7 May 2024, at 01:56, SSJ-Forum Moderator <ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> wrote:

From: MIDFORD Paul <paulmid@k.meijigakuin.ac.jp> Date: 2024/04/29
 

Although we have not discussed or debated Japanese politics much of SSJ Forum in recent years (there are other forums, including Japanese Politics on FB), I thought this might be a good opportunity to revive the tradition, at least temporarily, as the prospect of Seiken Kotai is now looming as a serious possibility in the next lower house election for the first time since 2012. Although the LDP might yet recover some measure of support before the next Lower House election, if an general election were to be held this spring it is all but certain that the LDP would lose its majority in the Lower House by a significant margin. Even in Shimane, one of the strongest of the LDP's bastions, the CDP won a blow out victory, with over 58% of the vote going to the CDP candidate, Kamei Akiko.

 

The CDP swept all three special elections yesterday, not only crushing the LDP in Shimane, but also crushing Ishin in Nagasaki and winning a large plurality in Tokyo against many candidates. The CDP appears to be back as the unquestioned leading opposition party with Ishin's leader admitting that they are failing to attract significant support outside of Osaka.

 

For the LDP to hold on to a majority in the next Lower House election they need to dump Kishida (all but a certainty now) and find a charismatic leader like Koizumi the Elder. Could that be Koizumi the Younger, Kono Taro, Ishiba?

 

It is easy to guess that the LDP will panic now and agree to all of the opposition's demands regarding political reform. That might help their reputation somewhat, but that might not be sufficient, especially as the opposition will probably get much of the credit for reforms. Moreover, those reforms will further cripple the LDP's electoral machine that had already suffered significant blows by the suspension of fundraising parties, the dissolution of factions as funding raising and campaign entities, and the loss of the Unification Church as a support group and source of free campaign labor.

 

          I will look forward to hearing reactions and other views from Forum participants.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

 

Paul Midford

Professor of Political Science

Department of Global and Transcultural Studies

Meiji Gakuin University

1518 Kamikurata-cho

Totsuka-ku Yokohama-shi, Kanagawa-ken  244-8539

Japan

 

Office Tel.:  +81-(0) 45-863-2252

Fax:              +81-(0)45-863-2265

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Email:              paulmid@k.meijigakuin.ac.jp

 

 

Author of:

Overcoming Isolationism Japan's Leadership in East Asian Security Multilateralism (Stanford University Press, 2020): https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=31294

Rethinking Japanese Public Opinion and Security From Pacifism to Realism? (Stanford University Press, 2011): https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=17539

 

Ian Neary
Emeritus Fellow
St Antony's College and Nissan Institute
Oxford University

ian.neary@nissan.ox.ac.uk