Dear Contributors,

I am a bit late to the discussion, but wrote an article on precisely this topic a couple of weeks ago:

https://theconversation.com/should-japan-cancel-the-tokyo-olympics-it-may-not-be-able-to-161121 <https://theconversation.com/should-japan-cancel-the-tokyo-olympics-it-may-not-be-able-to-161121>

My analysis overlaps with that of Paul and other contributors here. Basically, what are the costs to Suga if he cancels now? The IOC would resist, and given that contractually they hold all the cards (technically Japan cannot actually cancel), it would be a painful, messy and expensive process. Moreover, backing down at this late stage, it's hard to see him stay in power. I think the expectation would be that he resigns to take responsibility.

Conversely, if he holds out, the vaccine rollout keeps picking up pace, there is no major outbreak (the athletes will mostly be vaccinated), and the games take place more or less without scandal. It's high risk, to be sure. But it could pay off handsomely - the elderly conservative LDP voters are pleased to see Japan do well (home team advantage = extra medals), and to see that, after the 'Unified Korea' winter games, the 'China coming out' 2008 games, and the forthcoming 'Green Olympics' in Bejing next winter, Japan can still hold its own. Since turnout is at historic lows, the opposition is so divided, Suga just needs a fraction of total eligible voters to win in October (20-25% would be fine).

None of this is to take a normative position on whether the games should be held. Just to say that, from Suga's perspective, pushing ahead makes political sense.


On Tue, Jun 1, 2021 at 6:33 AM SSJ-Forum Moderator <ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp <mailto:ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp>> wrote:
From: raspinal <raspinal@mail.doshisha.ac.jp <mailto:raspinal@mail.doshisha.ac.jp>>

Date: 2021/05/28

Dear Peter,

Thank you for your thoughtful account of the current situation in
Japanese politics. I also thought that Koichi's article in the Guardian
was very timely - and brought some of these issues to an audience
outside Japan.

A lack of a major opposition has been a problem for Japan's democracy
for a long time.

Since World War II Japan has had a 'single-party-dominant' system rather
than a conventional two-party system. There have been very few House of
Representatives elections in which the electorate has had a clear choice
of the current government or an alternative 'government-in-waiting'.
Instead, potentially serious declines in the LDP vote were taken as
signs that the LDP needed to do something to please the voters. This is
the 'safety valve' theory put forward by Chalmers Johnson. One example
of this is the anti-pollution legislation of the 1970s which the LDP
introduced despite the opposition of big business. Under this system the
continuing LDP government was only really under threat from within. It
lost in 1993 because of the breakaway of Ozawa and his half of the
Takeshita faction, not because of the challenge of a strong external
opposition.

In 1994 the election system for the House of Representatives was changed
to try to bring about a two-party system. In 2009 it seemed that the
reform had worked because for the first time since WWII one government
was kicked out and a new one was installed. The failure of the resulting
2009-12 DPJ government is beyond the scope of the present discussion,
but the fact is that today Japan lacks a single large opposition party
united behind a coherent program which is perceived to be a genuine
government-in-waiting. Opposition Diet members can and do attack the
government for its many shortcomings and scandals. Abe was quite skilful
in defending himself and his government against the opposition. I agree
that in contrast Suga so far seems to be absolutely hopeless as a
parliamentary performer. Factional support within the LDP for Suga
however seems to indicate that this doesn't matter. Opposition to Suga
cannot translate into a change of government at election time if there
is no credible opposition party that is big enough to win. Where is the
opposition?

Robert Aspinall

Doshisha University


------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:* ssj-forum-bounces@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp <mailto:ssj-forum-bounces@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp>
<ssj-forum-bounces@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp <mailto:ssj-forum-bounces@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp>> on behalf of SSJ-Forum Moderator
<ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp <mailto:ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp>>
*Sent:* 26 May 2021 11:03
*To:* ssj-forum@cal.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp <mailto:ssj-forum@cal.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> <ssj-forum@cal.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp <mailto:ssj-forum@cal.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp>>
*Subject:* [SSJ: 11453] Japan's opposition parties and the pandemic
From: Peter Cave <Peter.Cave@manchester.ac.uk <mailto:Peter.Cave@manchester.ac.uk>>

Date: 2021/05/24

Today, Jochi political scientist Koichi Nakano published an opinion
piece in the Guardian about the Japanese government's approach to the
Tokyo Olympics (In Japan most people want to cancel the Olympics, but
the government won't listen | Koichi Nakano | The Guardian
<https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/24/japan-cancel-olympics-coronavirus <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/24/japan-cancel-olympics-coronavirus>
<https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/24/japan-cancel-olympics-coronavirus <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/24/japan-cancel-olympics-coronavirus>>>).

The article is very critical of the Suga government (with reason, in my
view), and notes the high level of public dissatisfaction. It does
strike me as very strange, however, that Professor Nakano makes no
mention whatsoever of opposition parties - what they might be saying, or
what the level of support for them is. It is even stranger, given that a
general election is scheduled to be held in Japan later this year. I
find it hard to think of any other major democratic country where
analysis would not touch on this subject.

The last opinion poll that I actually saw reported (by the Asahi on May
17) showed that alongside the record low approval rate of 33% for the
Suga cabinet, 35% of voters said they would vote for the LDP in the PR
section if a national election were held now, against 17% who would vote
for the CDP. In other words, double the support for the LDP than for its
main rival, despite record-low disapproval for the government. (And this
is the PR section, where votes are purely for party. The LDP would
probably do better in the SMD section.) See: Survey: Suga Cabinet
approval rating ties record low of 33% : The Asahi Shimbun
<http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14351623 <http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14351623>
<http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14351623 <http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14351623>>>

This makes me wonder two things. (1) What have opposition parties been
saying about what changes need to be made, regarding the Olympics or
more widely regarding the shortcomings in Japan's systems that have been
revealed by the pandemic? (2) Why have opposition parties apparently
been able to capitalise so little on the Suga government's pretty woeful
performance?

Thoughts and analysis are welcome.

Peter Cave
Senior Lecturer in Japanese Studies
Research Postgraduate Director, Modern Languages and Cultures
SALC, University of Manchester
Samuel Alexander Building
Oxford Road
Manchester M13 9PL
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)161 275 3195
www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/ <http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/>
<http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/ <http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/>>
<http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/ <http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/>
<http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/ <http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/>>>