This is a piece I wrote for Toyo Keizai, measuring Abenomics against his own promises of what he would do and how he would do it.

The URL for Toyo Keizai's English edition is https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/372549

In Japanese, it's https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/372523

He failed to achieve his economic growth goal of 2% real GDP.

He failed to achieve his inflation goal of 2% inflation. Core inflation (CPI ex food and energy) is near zero now.

The third arrow was lots of wonderful goals, few accomplishments. The "drill bit" for reform was rather dull.

Productivity growth has further decelerated.

Real wages kept declining.

On womenomics, more women are working, in a continuation of the trend that began before he came to power, but 75% of the increase has been for low-paid non-regular workers, as was also the case for men. He has now put off until 2030, the goal of having 30% of managers be women, a goal he first said would be achieved by 2020, the same goal and same deadline as Koizumi had promised.

He, along with Koizumi, has now established a consensus that Japan needs structural reform. "no growth without reform" in Koizumi's words. Now, the issue is how to define it and how to achieve it.

I agree with Paul MIdford re: nuclear power. Japan has backslid on carbon emissions goals and is not only building more coal-burning electric plants, but also using taxpayer money to fund exports of them.

Ellis Krauss asked to what to expect. Had Abe actually implemented all three arrows, Japan would be in much better shape. Here is a PM who gained a mandate from the public for his Abenomics--including a two-thirds majority for the LDP-Komeito coalition. He faced neither a strong opposition party, nor strong opponents within the LDP; he had gained far more control over appointment of top bureaucrats than his predecessors, and high approval ratings for someone with his longevity. Given all that, should not more have been expected from him? Should not more of his accomplishments matched his promises and boasts.

Richard Katz