On the question of how successful Abe was in his second term, I think it is a mixed bag. In some ways his biggest success was just staying in office for such a long period and bringing some political stability and sustained, albeit very low, economic growth over a long period. I also think his assault on the Bank of Japan´s deflationary bias was a big success, and shows the benefits of being out of power. I doubt Abe or any other LDP leader would have been able to think outside the box and consider taking on a major governmental institution had they not had the sobering experience of being voted out of power.

Reinterpreting the constitution is also an important legacy, although it was in fact a far more modest reinterpretation than is commonly understood. Abe also withdrew Japan from all boots-on-the-ground SDF deployments overseas in support of international security, favoring a more isolationist approach. In many ways, his constitutional revision and reinterpretation projects end up looking more like inward looking ideological projects rather than attempts to remake Japan´s security policy.*

I don´t think Abe made very much progress restarting Japan´s nuclear power plants, certainly far less than he originally intended (he wanted all reactors restarted by 2015). He only restarted up to 9 out of 48, and some of those had to shut down again to meet new anti-terror standards. Many reactors are being scrapped. Abe de facto took Noda´s policy of ending nuclear power by 2039 and extended that deadline by 10 to 15 years. Like the consumption tax, Abe ended up implementing his DPJ´s predecessors' energy reform policies for promoting renewable energy. Abe added a hydrogen strategy on top of that, which also promotes renewable energy. Consequently, energy sector reform is one of the few areas where we saw real progress with the Third Arrow of Abenomics.** TPP and the EU-Japan FTA can also be counted as significant successes that also made some contributions to the Third Arrow, although again both policies originated with the DPJ. A more independent initiative that Abe deserves credit for (i.e. for the courage of taking on his conservative base) is creating a guest worker program, although so far the results have been miniscule.

Overall, for a leader of a coalition with a two-thirds majority in the lower house and a stable coalition majority in the upper house (except for the first 8 months) over 7 years and 8 months Abe´s accomplishments do not seem that impressive to me. I think there are two major explanations for this: either Abe was not a very strong leader who got lucky, or he is a strong leader who made the maximum amount of change possible in Japan´s political system. If it is former then we can anticipate that a stronger leader could make bigger changes. If it is the latter then we should expect less change moving forward. I personally think it was more the former: Abe was not a strong leader who got lucky, but I open to the second possibility.


Best,
Paul


* Here I would cite Bryce Wakefield´s chapter in a new published (7 September) volume I co-edited on Japan´s inward looking debate on constitutional reform:

https://www.amazon.com/New-Directions-Japans-Security-Evolution/dp/0367416034/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=midford+vosse&qid=1599220394&s=books&sr=1-1)


** Here is another shameless plug for a new book looking at Japan´s energy policy in comparative perspective: https://www.amazon.com/Challenges-Solutions-Renewable-Energy-International/dp/303054513X/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=midford+Moe&qid=1599220682&s=books&sr=1-1

差出人: ssj-forum-bounces@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp <ssj-forum-bounces@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> が SSJ-Forum Moderator <ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> の代理で送信
送信日時: 2020年9月3日 7:36:14
宛先: ssj-forum@cal.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp
件名: [SSJ: 11140] Re: Abe Shinzo - what have been his most consequential domestic policy actions?

From: Ellis Krauss <eskrauss@gmail.com>

Date: 2020/09/03

Peter:

I think you are being too harsh on Abe. What could he have done
domestically? What were Japan's most serious problems. Crime? No?
Violence? No. Immigration reaction? No. An aging society and massive
debt? Yes. But he managed to get through the consumption tax increase,
if delayed, no mean feat given internal LDP opposition and massive
opposition in the public. He also brought back nuclear power (personally
I don't like it but...) -- a stopgap to supply energy needs until Japan
can diversify more.

It's true that Abe's main achievements were in foreign policy but you
confined this to domestic policy. And perhaps the main domestic
achievement was to bring back political stability after 7 years of
non-stability.

Comparatively, what other leader of a major industrialized country even
accomplished that much? Johnson? Trump? Don't make me laugh. Macron?
Couldn't accomplish his needed reforms and there was instability over
them. Maybe Merkle, but her main accomplishments were in foreign policy
too and now she's facing a resurgent extremist right.

So what were your expectations?

Best,
Ellis
Ellis Krauss


On Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 21:45 SSJ-Forum Moderator
<ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> wrote:

From: Peter Cave <Peter.Cave@manchester.ac.uk>
Date: 2020/08/28

Dear Forum members

With PM Abe's announcement that he is stepping down, I would be
interested to know what you consider to be his most consequential
actions in domestic policy, excluding the actions to boost inflation and
lower the value of the yen. I deliberately limit the question to
domestic policy, and I exclude those particular actions, because I
suspect that many might agree about their importance.

There are various opinions about Abe, and he raises quite strong
passions. However, given that he has enjoyed perhaps the most commanding
parliamentary majority in the democratic world during his
record-breaking tenure, my personal impression is that he has done
remarkably little with it on the domestic front. I can't help feeling
that almost any other leader of a comparable country, in a comparable
position, would have done far more. You may agree or disagree about this
- I look forward to hearing. But if it is a correct view, the question
then arises, why? Various reasons could be imagined. For example, it
could be argued that Abe was weaker than he appeared, and so could not
do things he really wanted to do, because of divisions within the LDP,
and the LDP's need for the alliance with Komeito. It could also be
argued that Abe (and the LDP as a whole) is actually relatively content
with the state of Japan, and so did not see the need for radical
measures (this would not be surprising given that the LDP has been in
power for the vast majority of the last 65 years, and thus has played an
enormous role in shaping Japan as it is today).

I look forward to hearing the views of Forum members.

Peter

Peter Cave
Senior Lecturer in Japanese Studies
SALC, University of Manchester
Samuel Alexander Building
Oxford Road
Manchester M13 9PL
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)161 275 3195
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/__;!!Mih3wA!XDmo6XVNFNHWFH-MvEFLo_D1vqVh9JkSwK4-BBaQewhaz1Pl6MgY7DUVi7BsaC8$