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September 10, 2020
[SSJ: 11144] Re: Abe Shinzo - what have been his most consequential domestic policy actions?
From: Philip Streich <philstreich@gmail.com>
Date: 2020/09/04
The past eight years were the "near longest boom in postwar history"?
Between Abe coming into office and the end of 2019, before COVID, there were six points in time at which GDP growth went negative. There are an additional two points in time at which growth went to zero. Wage growth has remained flat.
Monetary policy can only do so much. It's only a short-term fix, and it obviously didn't work even at that. Tight labor market? That's more the result of demographics than policy.
I agree with Peter. He's done remarkably little on the domestic front. His biggest "achievements" - the final consumption tax raise to 10% and the security legislation - are also his least popular.
Overall, he was able to stay in power despite his tepid economic performance and scandals. It's more to do with the weakness of the opposition.
Philip Streich
--
Philip Streich, PhD
Osaka University
Yamadaoka 1-2, Suita City,
Osaka, Japan 565-0871
On Fri, Sep 4, 2020 at 1:16 PM Nobuhiro Hiwatari <hiwatari@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> wrote:
I fear this is probably beside your discussion but FWIW
Leaders usually promise a good economy and a stable society and can reliably expect voters to reward them at the polls, if they deliver.
Abe has presided over the near longest boom in postwar history, and consequently realized a rallying stock market and a tight labor market (advantageous for wages and especially for new graduates).
He was able to do so by carefully timing the consumption tax hike and by re-empowering the Economic and Fiscal Advisory Council who draw blueprints for growth. He subsequently passed its recommendations and pushed for wages increases and the incremental liberalization of labor markets.
But, above all, the most consequential of his actions is the appointment of an effective central banker who would faithfully execute his somewhat unorthodox monetary policy (rather than being dictated by the central bank).
In fact, it is his economic management that enabled him to earn enough political capital to weather the unpopularity of his security reforms and personal scandals.
Nobuhiro Hiwatari
On 2020/09/03 14:36, "SSJ-Forum Moderator" <ssj-forum-bounces@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp on behalf of ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> wrote:
From: Ellis Krauss <eskrauss@gmail.com>
Date: 2020/09/03
Peter:
I think you are being too harsh on Abe. What could he have done
domestically? What were Japan's most serious problems. Crime? No?
Violence? No. Immigration reaction? No. An aging society and massive
debt? Yes. But he managed to get through the consumption tax increase,
if delayed, no mean feat given internal LDP opposition and massive
opposition in the public. He also brought back nuclear power (personally
I don't like it but...) -- a stopgap to supply energy needs until Japan
can diversify more.
It's true that Abe's main achievements were in foreign policy but you
confined this to domestic policy. And perhaps the main domestic
achievement was to bring back political stability after 7 years of
non-stability.
Comparatively, what other leader of a major industrialized country even
accomplished that much? Johnson? Trump? Don't make me laugh. Macron?
Couldn't accomplish his needed reforms and there was instability over
them. Maybe Merkle, but her main accomplishments were in foreign policy
too and now she's facing a resurgent extremist right.
So what were your expectations?
Best,
Ellis
Ellis Krauss
On Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 21:45 SSJ-Forum Moderator
<ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> wrote:
From: Peter Cave <Peter.Cave@manchester.ac.uk>
Date: 2020/08/28
Dear Forum members
With PM Abe's announcement that he is stepping down, I would be
interested to know what you consider to be his most consequential
actions in domestic policy, excluding the actions to boost inflation and
lower the value of the yen. I deliberately limit the question to
domestic policy, and I exclude those particular actions, because I
suspect that many might agree about their importance.
There are various opinions about Abe, and he raises quite strong
passions. However, given that he has enjoyed perhaps the most commanding
parliamentary majority in the democratic world during his
record-breaking tenure, my personal impression is that he has done
remarkably little with it on the domestic front. I can't help feeling
that almost any other leader of a comparable country, in a comparable
position, would have done far more. You may agree or disagree about this
- I look forward to hearing. But if it is a correct view, the question
then arises, why? Various reasons could be imagined. For example, it
could be argued that Abe was weaker than he appeared, and so could not
do things he really wanted to do, because of divisions within the LDP,
and the LDP's need for the alliance with Komeito. It could also be
argued that Abe (and the LDP as a whole) is actually relatively content
with the state of Japan, and so did not see the need for radical
measures (this would not be surprising given that the LDP has been in
power for the vast majority of the last 65 years, and thus has played an
enormous role in shaping Japan as it is today).
I look forward to hearing the views of Forum members.
Peter
Peter Cave
Senior Lecturer in Japanese Studies
SALC, University of Manchester
Samuel Alexander Building
Oxford Road
Manchester M13 9PL
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)161 275 3195
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/__;!!Mih3wA!XDmo6XVNFNHWFH-MvEFLo_D1vqVh9JkSwK4-BBaQewhaz1Pl6MgY7DUVi7BsaC8$
--
Philip Streich, PhD
Associate Professor
Human Sciences Program
Osaka University
Yamadaoka 1-2, Suita City,
Osaka, Japan 565-0871
Philip Streich, PhD
Osaka University
Yamadaoka 1-2, Suita City,
Osaka, Japan 565-0871
On Fri, Sep 4, 2020 at 1:16 PM Nobuhiro Hiwatari <hiwatari@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> wrote:
I fear this is probably beside your discussion but FWIW
Leaders usually promise a good economy and a stable society and can reliably expect voters to reward them at the polls, if they deliver.
Abe has presided over the near longest boom in postwar history, and consequently realized a rallying stock market and a tight labor market (advantageous for wages and especially for new graduates).
He was able to do so by carefully timing the consumption tax hike and by re-empowering the Economic and Fiscal Advisory Council who draw blueprints for growth. He subsequently passed its recommendations and pushed for wages increases and the incremental liberalization of labor markets.
But, above all, the most consequential of his actions is the appointment of an effective central banker who would faithfully execute his somewhat unorthodox monetary policy (rather than being dictated by the central bank).
In fact, it is his economic management that enabled him to earn enough political capital to weather the unpopularity of his security reforms and personal scandals.
Nobuhiro Hiwatari
On 2020/09/03 14:36, "SSJ-Forum Moderator" <ssj-forum-bounces@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp on behalf of ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> wrote:
From: Ellis Krauss <eskrauss@gmail.com>
Date: 2020/09/03
Peter:
I think you are being too harsh on Abe. What could he have done
domestically? What were Japan's most serious problems. Crime? No?
Violence? No. Immigration reaction? No. An aging society and massive
debt? Yes. But he managed to get through the consumption tax increase,
if delayed, no mean feat given internal LDP opposition and massive
opposition in the public. He also brought back nuclear power (personally
I don't like it but...) -- a stopgap to supply energy needs until Japan
can diversify more.
It's true that Abe's main achievements were in foreign policy but you
confined this to domestic policy. And perhaps the main domestic
achievement was to bring back political stability after 7 years of
non-stability.
Comparatively, what other leader of a major industrialized country even
accomplished that much? Johnson? Trump? Don't make me laugh. Macron?
Couldn't accomplish his needed reforms and there was instability over
them. Maybe Merkle, but her main accomplishments were in foreign policy
too and now she's facing a resurgent extremist right.
So what were your expectations?
Best,
Ellis
Ellis Krauss
On Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 21:45 SSJ-Forum Moderator
<ssjmod@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp> wrote:
From: Peter Cave <Peter.Cave@manchester.ac.uk>
Date: 2020/08/28
Dear Forum members
With PM Abe's announcement that he is stepping down, I would be
interested to know what you consider to be his most consequential
actions in domestic policy, excluding the actions to boost inflation and
lower the value of the yen. I deliberately limit the question to
domestic policy, and I exclude those particular actions, because I
suspect that many might agree about their importance.
There are various opinions about Abe, and he raises quite strong
passions. However, given that he has enjoyed perhaps the most commanding
parliamentary majority in the democratic world during his
record-breaking tenure, my personal impression is that he has done
remarkably little with it on the domestic front. I can't help feeling
that almost any other leader of a comparable country, in a comparable
position, would have done far more. You may agree or disagree about this
- I look forward to hearing. But if it is a correct view, the question
then arises, why? Various reasons could be imagined. For example, it
could be argued that Abe was weaker than he appeared, and so could not
do things he really wanted to do, because of divisions within the LDP,
and the LDP's need for the alliance with Komeito. It could also be
argued that Abe (and the LDP as a whole) is actually relatively content
with the state of Japan, and so did not see the need for radical
measures (this would not be surprising given that the LDP has been in
power for the vast majority of the last 65 years, and thus has played an
enormous role in shaping Japan as it is today).
I look forward to hearing the views of Forum members.
Peter
Peter Cave
Senior Lecturer in Japanese Studies
SALC, University of Manchester
Samuel Alexander Building
Oxford Road
Manchester M13 9PL
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)161 275 3195
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/peter.cave/__;!!Mih3wA!XDmo6XVNFNHWFH-MvEFLo_D1vqVh9JkSwK4-BBaQewhaz1Pl6MgY7DUVi7BsaC8$
--
Philip Streich, PhD
Associate Professor
Human Sciences Program
Osaka University
Yamadaoka 1-2, Suita City,
Osaka, Japan 565-0871
Approved by ssjmod at 02:00 PM