Dear all


National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) is pleased to announce the following seminar;


If you are interested, please register at;

https://goo.gl/forms/D9wMsX6GuVCf3H553

and join us!


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IPSS Foreign Scholar Lecture Series


"Cohort Change Ratios & Their Applications"



Date and time: 15:00 - 17:00, October 31 (Wednesday), 2018


Venue : IPSS Meeting Room No.4,

6th floor, Hibiya Kokusai Building, 2-2-3 Uchisaiwai-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo


TEL : 03-3595-2984


MAP : http://www.ipss.go.jp/pr-ad/e/info-e/map-e.html



Lecturer: David A. Swanson, Ph.D. (Professor Emeritus, Faculty Affiliate, Center for Studies in Demography & Ecology, University of Washington)



Abstract:

Like many demographers, my first exposure to the cohort change ratio (CCR) was as a census survival rate, which can be used as a measure of mortality in places that have at least two reasonably accurate census counts, but lack good vital statistics data. Like most others interested in population forecasting, I also was taught that the cohort-component method was the de facto standard for producing estimates and forecasts by age, sex, and other demographic characteristics. Once I started working, however, it quickly became apparent that implementing the cohort-component method in places lacking good vital events and migration information was difficult, if not practically infeasible. At the same time there was a rising and seemingly insatiable demand for small area (especially subcounty) estimates and forecasts of demographic characteristics. As a result, many colleagues and I started using the Hamilton-Perry method (H-P), which is based on CCRs to develop such estimates and forecasts for a wide range of geographic areas both inside and outside of the United States. The H-P method has gained acceptance as research has demonstrated its practical value and accuracy in estimating and forecasting population. While estimation and forecasting has been the main use of the H-P method, over the past few years , my colleagues and I started investigating potential refinements to this method as well as other applications for the CCR approach including stable population analysis and estimating historical populations. In this talk, I describe the CCR approach, discuss variations and refinements to it, and present several applications that include: (1) an ex post facto test of the accuracy of probabilistic CCR forecasts of populations by age; (2) an estimate of the demographic impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Mississippi Gulf Coast in 2005; (3) a life table and forecast of Major League Baseball pitchers; (4) the CCR approach to stable population theory; and (5) a "reverse forecast" in which the CCR method is used to estimate the population of Hawai'i in 1778, the year of first European contact.


＊Presentation and discussion will be given in English (Japanese translation is provided).



＊This seminar is co-organized with Aoyama Gakuin University. Also it is partially supported by Health Labour Science Research Grant (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare), "Demographic analysis, population projection and their application corresponding to the new trend of low fertility and population ageing through international and regional perspectives." (H29-Seisaku-Shitei-003).


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Reiko Hayashi, Ph.D.

Director

Department of International Research and Cooperation

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS)

Hibiya Kokusai Building 6th Floor

2-2-3 Uchisaiwaicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0011

Tel: +81-(0)3-3595-2984 ext.4420 fax : +81-(0)3-3591-4821