A response to Ellis and a big thank you to those who have contributed so
many valuable points to this discussion, including Ehud Harari who started
it off and Paul Midford.

Just a few observations:

1. Given the lacklustre performance of the JCP in the election, it would
appear that the CDPJ has eaten into the JCP¹s constituency - those who
oppose constitutional revision and want a party to fight for that cause.
However, many of these voters don¹t necessarily oppose the US-Japan
alliance or are anti-militarist per se. They accept what is now the
long-standing national defence consensus - the need for the SDF and the
alliance to defend Japan - particularly at this perilous time. So these
voters (and CDPJ supporters) differentiate between issues of defence and
issues of constitutional revision. In this respect, the CDPJ is part of
the mainstream whereas the JCP isn¹t, given the latter's stance on the
US-Japan alliance.

2. Abe (as usual) said nothing about constitutional revision during the
campaign - he repeatedly banged the drum on the North Korean threat and
Japan¹s low birth rate (linking this to his proposal for spending the
increase in the consumption tax in 2019) - the two big Œcrises¹ that only
his government, he implied, was sufficiently competent to handle. If Abe
had stressed the issue of constitutional revision in the election, it
risked turning away Komeito (and other) voters so that¹s probably the
principal reason why he kept quiet.To my knowledge, he¹s never campaigned
on constitutional reform. But the very next day after the election, he
wasted no time in announcing his plans for moving the issue forward -
through the party etc.

Best,

Aurelia George Mulgan

PS [If anyone would like a new copy of my 'Power and Pork: A Japanese
Political Life' book, please let me know - I have 8 copies from the
publisher to give away.]