Paul Midford's arguments make sense, as usual.

We shall see. It might take several years to find out whether my argument has been a "prophecy," or, following Ellis' Paul's arguments - a dud. In the meantime, I take comfort in the realization that my post has rekindled the conversation on Japanese politics in this forum.

A reminder: Hashimoto was popular in the public - with a reputation of a strong guy - good at martial arts and having the guts to stand up to the US. If I am not mistaken, Ellis Krauss pointed out in his publications that by that time the public popularity, or lack of it, of a party's head mattered, notably more than before. About the "before" see, for example, the good old Massey, J. A. (1975). "The Missing Leader: Japanese Youth's View of Political Authority." American Political Science Review, vol. LXIX, no. 1 (March), 31-48.

Ellis and Paul are correct in drawing attention to the use of social media in the election campaign, especially now, as today's Mainichi points out, that the voting age has been lowered to 18. https://mainichi.jp/senkyo/articles/20171013/k00/00e/010/192000c?fm=mnm

Ehud Harari, A.K.