The Contemporary Japan Group at the Institute of Social Science (ISS, or Shaken),
University of Tokyo, welcomes you to a lecture by

Christopher Wlezien

Hogg Professor of Government, University of Texas at Austin

The Timeline of Elections in Comparative Perspective

DATE AND PLACE
Friday, July 22, 2016 from 6:30-8:00 p.m. at Akamon Sōgō Kenkyūtō Room 549, Institute of Social
Science, University of Tokyo, Hongo Campus, University of Tokyo

ABSTRACT
Scholars are only beginning to understand the evolution of electoral sentiment over time. How do
preferences come into focus over the electoral cycle in different countries? Do they evolve in
patterned ways? Does the evolution vary across countries? This paper addresses these issues. We
consider differences in political institutions and how they might impact voter preferences over the
course of the election cycle. We then outline an empirical analysis relating support for parties or
candidates in pre-election polls to their final vote. The analysis relies on over 26,000 vote
intention polls in 45 countries since 1942, covering 312 discrete electoral cycles, including five
in Japan. Our results indicate that early polls contain substantial information about the final
result but that they become increasingly informative over the election cycle. Although the degree
to which this is true varies across countries in important and understandable ways given differences
in political institutions, the pattern is strikingly general.

Speaker
Christopher Wlezien is Hogg Professor of Government at the University of Texas at Austin. He
received his Ph.D. from the University of Iowa and has been on the faculty at Oxford University, the
University of Houston, and Temple University. He holds or has held visiting positions at Columbia
University, European University Institute (Florence), Instituto Empresa (Madrid), Juan March
Institute (Madrid), University of Mannheim (Germany), McGill University (Montreal), Sciences Po
(Paris), and the University of Manchester (UK). His primary, ongoing research develops and tests a
“thermostatic” model of public opinion and policy, and his other major project assesses the
evolution of voter preferences over the course of election cycles. He has published numerous
articles and chapters as well as a number of books, including Degrees of Democracy and Who Gets
Represented? and The Timeline of Presidential Elections. Wlezien was founding co-editor of the
international Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. He currently is Associate Editor of
Public Opinion Quarterly, Research and Politics, and Parliamentary Affairs and a member of the
editorial boards of five other journals.

CONTEMPORARY JAPAN GROUP
The ISS Contemporary Japan Group provides English-speaking residents of the Tokyo area with an
opportunity to hear cutting-edge research in social science and related policy issues, as well as a
venue for researchers and professionals in or visiting Tokyo to present and receive knowledgeable
feedback on their latest research projects. Admission is free and advance registration is not
required. Everyone is welcome.
For more information, including maps and a list of past lectures, please visit our website:
http://web.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp/cjg/
or contact
Gregory W. NOBLE (noble@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp)