August 15 posed a big test on the Senkakus/Diaoyu for both Japan and China. And both coutnries seemed to have passed; i.e. they have takens steps to prevent the provocations that, last year, triggered the riots and boycotts in China.

Last year, on Aug. 15, Hong Kong (and Taiwanese?) activists were able to get past Japanese Coast Guard vessels around the Senkakus and land on one of the islets. They unfurled Chinese and Taiwanese flags and were promptly arrested by Japanese authorities. These arrests were the immediate trigger for the anti-Japanese riots and boycotts.

This year, Abe has decided, with much bitterness, not to go to Yasukuni (recall the boycotts in 2005 in the aftermath of Koizumi's visit).

Meanwhile, Beijing has blocked activists trying to land. A few days ago, a rich Chinese fellow took his yacht to the surrounding waters, intending to land, and was chased off by Chinese Maritime Agency boats. Then, the same HK activist group that landed last year was going to go again this Aug. 15, but HK authorities somehow managed to find so many safety violations on the boat that the activists could not get permission to go. They then took their boat to Taiwan (despite the safety violations) and intended to join Taiwanese activists. But Taipei blocked them, and the HK activists have announced that they will not go. They have, of course, called the Chinese and Taiwanese authorities traitors, blah, blah, blah. But, so far at least, it looks as if Beijing is working hard to prevent the spark that could set off a new round. They are keeping any action by Chinese entities within the monopoly of the state, and have muzzled the loose cannons of the activists.

Richard Katz
The Oriental Economist Report