Dear All,

Paul Midford asked about Zentoku's relationship to the
LDP:

"On the other hand, I have a question: what is the relationship of the LDP to Zentoku and post master generals? I thought Koizumi had pretty well burned the LDP's ties to them. I don't remember exactly how far the DPJ and Kokumintou got in repealing postal privatization, but I believe the LDP has been opposing repeal. Hence, it would seem surprising if the LDP is recovering their ties with post masters."

Koizumi did indeed do a great deal to sever the LDP's electoral ties to the postmasters association, but the cut was never complete. Between 2005 and 2009, Zentoku and Taiju (the association of retired postmasters) backed the PNP and the DPJ, both of which eventually embraced postal reform as part of their cooperative agreement. Many LDP lawmakers were in favor of another round of reform as well, but remained relatively quiet on that issue for as long as the LDP was obligated by its 2005 electoral mandate to implement Koizumi's privatization legislation. (That mandate didn't stop the LDP, though, from readmitting a number of postal rebels into the party in the lead-up to the 2007 UH
election.) After the 2009 election, however, LDP unity --such as it was-- on privatization began to crumble.
In spring 2012, the LDP actually cooperated with DPJ and the Komeito to pass a (limited) postal reform bill.

The postmasters associations, meanwhile, have learned how to play the electoral field. They've put unrelenting pressure on both major parties to unravel Koizumi's legislation and their leaders have made no secret of the fact that they'll side with whichever party best serves their interests. Now that a round of further postal reform has been completed, the postmasters appear to be looking to their former political patrons for more concessions.

The LDP's recent behavior toward the postmasters appears less surprising to me than indicative of a trend over the last few years: in the context of increasing party competition, interest groups (postmasters, farmers, perhaps also doctors and
dentists) are in effect encouraging the parties to compete with one another along policy lines for groups'
electoral backing. Given the nature of the electoral system and the challenges that individual candidates face to secure votes, the parties have good reason to respond to these interest group pressures, since many groups are still in a position to deliver (now
smallish) blocs of votes.

In the months ahead, it'll be interesting to see how the LDP responds to postal reform. The issue certainly clashes with the tenets of "Abenomics," but it also translates into votes from what is still one of Japan's most significant vote-mobilizing interest groups. My guess is that the new government will eventually introduce some small but substantive changes under the radar screen that will do little to advance economic efficiency within the postal services, but much to attract the allegiance of key vested interests=