I have neither good speculation or actual knowledge but I think you are correct with #1 and #2. I have seen a couple of TV commentators from different networks asserting (or acknowledging?) that the Japanese government's relations with China and Korea may be contributing to adverse influence on US posture towards Japan, for example, important people like Kerry going to China first, and then Korea before Japan.

By the way, is it just me or does the new Yomiuri English edition The Japan News (in large print) by the Yomiuri Shinbun (in much smaller print) look oddly like the Japan Times? My wife brought home a copy of the former this a.m. thinking it was the latter and I've fished coins out of my pocket before realizing I'd grabbed the wrong one...

Greg Johnson