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January 24, 2013

[SSJ: 7935] Re: Abenomics

From: Smitka, Mike
Date: 2013/01/24

Yes, conceptually it's possible ... but (i) other countries might not sit still, in which case it won't work and (ii) the amounts needed would likely be really large and not just on a one-shot basis. Would "unlimited" be politically sustainable, when those in charge faced newspaper headline after newspaper headline on how much was involved?

So ... if I had assets to play with, I'd be betting on the yen "overshooting" and then appreciating (perhaps on an episodic basis). [NB: every time I've lived in Japan with a dollar-based fellowship the yen has been strong; every time I've been there with a yen-based fellowship it's the dollar that's been strong. My track record in foreign exchange markets is 100% bad, though I won't go so far as to say that means should bet the opposite of what I suggest...]

mike smitka
academic economist

Approved by ssjmod at 11:22 AM