OK, John Campbell was taking bets on how much the LDP would win. (BTW John, any results?) I don't bet outside of friendly card games, but I'm wondering how long you all expect Abe to last a full year?

After all, I can't imagine that either his political skills, or his tin ears, or his grasp of language and issues have improved with age. The LDP isn't unified across numbers of issues and not everyone gets along with everyone else. And I don't think monetary policy is effective when interest rates are zero. We have a few years of evidence, right? So the economy won't necessarily work in his favor (if it does, it won't be his fault). Uh, there are other fault lines, too. But I don't watch politics enough to even recognize many of the names, much less make an informed guess about whether he will stumble his way for longer than in his first go-around.

If you email me numbers privately, I can post as a New Year's offering, but maybe others can help refine the question, pointing out where he is more vulnerable.
Will the LDP have lost enough sheen to fare poorly enough in the 2013 upper house elections to unseat him?
Other possible triggers?=