One of the interesting things about this election is how seriously the voters take at least some of the promises made in party manifestos. A DPJ Diet member in the Kansai region told me about going home to his district and being greeted at appearances with shouts of "Liar, liar."
And that was from his erstwhile supporters! The reason for this was his vote in favor of the consumption tax, which the voters saw a violation of the DPJ's campaign promise not to raise taxes until after seeking voters'
approval in another Lower House election. He reported that other DPJers were encountering similar reactions and now I've seen some press coverage of this phenomenon. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall any precedent.

I raise this issue because Shinzo Abe has made a rather specific promise in the LDP's campaign manifesto: to permanently station government personnel on the Senkakus. It is not clear if these would be civilians or Coast Guard or SDF personnnel. If Abe goes ahead with this, there is sure to be a Chinese reaction.
Indeed, during a series of discussions with a few security experts and LDPers in October, prior to the release of the manifesto, several experts assured me that, while Abe would likely build up coast guard vessels in the surrounding waters, he would try to cool things. Hence, he would avoid the kind provocative steps advocated by Shintaro Ishihara, such as stationing personnel or facilities on the islands. Not a single expert or LDPer (among the admittedly few with whom I spoke) predicted that Abe would do what the manifesto promises. Nor did anyone foresee that the manifesto would say this.

This raises some questions: is it just saber-rattling that Abe thinks will help the LDP in the election and then can either be implemented or ignored after the election? Or, if this becomes a major topic of discussion leading up to the elections, is it a promise that Abe will find himself pressured to keep, regardless of any advice to the contrary from foreign affairs experts? Will the "liar, liar" cries against the DPJ on the consumption tax--cries that the LDP help stir up--affect Abe's actions on the Senkakus?

Richard Katz
The Oriental Economist Report