I don't know whether the Chinese censor has already excised Dr. Patalano's paper from the local cybersphere but at any rate I can't get it. He has kindly sent it to me though, and I agree entirely that there is a great deal at stake in the Senkaku fracas, but I would emphasize that the pride and prestige of winning or losing is now far more important in driving policy than fish, oil, and rareminerals. I would also go along with his judgement that dispute will be continuous, but the Chinese will not risk war --- yet!
What I would not agree with, though, was his pessimism.
His belief that these disputes will be continuous and never-ending. The cost is so great that surely sense will prevail in the end. If photos were allowed, I would send pictures of Japanese shops boarded up, with standard municipal government boarding and the slogan
即将閉業。啓請期待; of a large cardboard advertisement for the Shanghai Municipal Cultural Centre’s Japanese language classes tossed on a rubbish heap. Japanese papers have carried the news of publihsers intructed not to publish pro-Japanese books. Customs clearance slow-downs. 7 out of 9 Poliburo members making anti-Japanese speeches.
Biggest burst of official rhetorical zenophobia since NATO bombed Belgrade Embassy.
Surely there will come a time when inflamed passions subside, and the truth that only good fences make good neighbours -- and that having a good fence is more important than whether the neighbour gets better grazing land
or not -- will sink in. Both the International Court
of Justice and
whatever is the judicial body set up under UNCLOS are explicitly designed to make viable fences. The obviously sensible thing to is go to them.
Japan is losing more from the fracas than China, because mob zenophobia is so much stronger. So Japan will have to take the initiative. China certainly won.
t. Japan should tell China: You are theones challenging the status quo so you should take the initiative by appealing to ICJ. If you don't we will got to the Security Council declaring that the dispute is a threat to pease and asking for a resolution urging China to go to ICJ.
But with a choice between Ishiba and Ishihara Jr as next Prime Minister, the whole Japanese political class has gone dotty. Thye have stopped thnking and speaking frankly. The fear of being branded unpatriotic hikokumin is approaching levels of the late 1930s. The only one who breaks the concensus is 87-year-old Nonaka Hiromu who appeared yesterday on Chinese
tv to apologise for Ichihara's stupidity. He gets no
notice in the
Japanese press, and to add insult to injury a You Tube repeat of his speech seems to have been taken down by the Chinese censor. I did a 1300-ji piece for the Asahi making the above arguments on 15 Sep. The editor showered it with praise but they are still dithering as to whether to print it. Even the Asahi seems to have gone under the tiide of nationalism.

Ronald Dore