Ellis Krauss wrote (in response to me)

> You may well be right that both
DPJ and LDP will lose seats in the

> next HOR election

>

>

RK:

Once again, thanks for the info. Let me make sure that I am not misunderstood. I am not saying that the LDP and DPJ will EACH lose seats in the LH election. I am saying that, barring divine intervention, the DPJ will get clobbered and that the COMBINED TOTAL of LDP and DPJ votes and seats will most likely decline. Parties other than the LDP will pick up many of the votes and seats that the DPJ loses. If today's polling trends continue, the LDP might lose seats in the PR segment but will surely increase seats in the SMD section.

This would reverse a trend since the 1994 electoral law changes as the party realignment moved much closer to a "two-party plus" system during the 2005 and 2009 elections.

In the PR segment, the top TWO parties' share of the vote rose from 61% in 1996 to 69% in 2009. Their share of PR seats rose from 65% to 78%. The SINGLE top party's share of the PR vote rose from 33% to 42%. Its share of seats rose even more: from 35% to 48%.

In the SMD segment, the top TWO parties' share of the votes rose from 67% in 1996 to 86% in 2009. Their share of SMD seats rose from 88% to 95% . The SINGLE top party's share of the vote rose from 39% to 47%. Its share of seats rose even more: from 56% to 73% in 2005 and 74% in 2009.

The fly in the ointment is that Hashimoto is an unknown phenomenon so far, a way for voters to say "no" to both the LDP and DPJ. When his party is actually formed and has to campaign, some disillusionment may set in. For now, however, two polls--Yomiuri and Kyodo--showed Hashimoto's party coming in second in the PR vote while Sankei showed it coming in first. Then, there is Your Party. Japan may be destined for another period of party realignment involving many parties forming and dissolving, defections back and forth, etc. One interesting question. In the past, when a Diet member defected from one party to another, his koenkai moved with him. Will that continue?

Paul Midford wrote:

> Hashimoto's party may do very
well, but I would bet that this such an

> outcome will have more to do with its anti-nuclear
stance rather

> than due to the tax increase issue.

>

RK:

I think the overarching issue is "trust," or the lack of it, represented by the both the tax and nuclear issues. It also, in my mind, may partially explain the different reaction to the sales tax in Japan vs. Norway (as I learned during a journalist trip to Sweden and Denmark), but that's for another posting.

Richard Katz
The Oriental Economist Report