Ellis Krauss wrote:

>One small point of response to Richard Katz' comment
that:
>
>We could easily have a repeat of the 2010 UH election
in which, at
>least in the PR segment, both the DPJ and LDP lose
votes to anti-tax
>(and anti-nuclear?) parties.
>
>
>ESK: it is very dangerous to make any equivalence
between the HOC and
>HOR elections because their electoral systems are so
different. Not
>only is the HOC's local tier SNTV vs. the HOR's SSD ,
but the HOC has
>an Open List PR system vs the HOR's Closed List PR.
>Thus the personal vote in the Hoc's PR tier counts for
more than in the
>HOR's where it's the party vote that counts most.
>
>
Thanks for the reminder of the difference, which I take to mean that, for the whole election combined (district and PR) the party counts more than the individual candidate (correct me if I've misinterpreted you). I would note that polls overall, for both LH and UH, show voters paying more attention to the party and less to individual candidates than in the past. Even incumbents who had won their district seats by double-digits lost them in 2009 (and I believe in 2005 as well).

Despite this difference between UH and LH elections, I believe the notion that both the LDP and DPJ could lose votes and seats to anti-tax parties remains still valid (i.e. if this proves true, then the combined vote and seat total of DPJ and LDP would be much lower than in
2005 or 2009).

This makes the impact of the Hashimoto party potential even more significant. In a Sept. 3 Kyodo poll on party preference for the PR segment, the LDP came in first at 22.%, Hashimoto's prospective party at 17.6% and the DPJ third at 12.4%. What will be interesting to see is whether Hashimoto's boomlet lasts at least through the election or whether he is viewed as "wacky" or "incompetent" as some of the Republican candidates who rose and fell within weeks, once they got serious exposure. One of the reasons DPJers wanted to delay elections was because they felt Hashimoto would turn out to be a "flash in the pan."

Also, according to some things I've seen, a big part of the battle for LDP president will revolve around whom to ally with if they cannot form a government with just themselves, the Komeito and defectors. Some (like Abe and who else?) prefer to allly with Hashimoto while others would prefer what remains of the DPJ.

Richard Katz
The Oriental Economist Report