Ron Dore wrote:

"Perhaps Paul Midford, citing all those polls showing how nobly the Japanese would grin and bear it if they had to pay more for non-nuclear electricity, would tell us why nobody has asked: "Do you realise that no nuclear for ever means that Japan will miss all the emissions targets it has accepted at climate change conferences? Would that still make it sensible to abandon nuclear power?"

The simple answer is that there are lots of great questions that pollsters should ask but don't. Some questions are not asked because they are beyond the pale of mainstream debate (e.g. I have never seen a pollster ask whether Japanese support using military force overseas to promote democracy and human rights), but in this case it's just a good question that no one has has apparently bothered to ask (although it is more than possible that I have just missed it). While I would not necessarily recommend Ron Dore's wording, especially the word "forever," asking respondents whether they are willing forgo using nuclear power even if it means that Japan misses its CO2 emission targets would be a good question. Given that the short-run switch from nuclear power plants to CO2 emitting thermal plants has been widely reported in the media, it is reasonable to surmise, as I mentioned in my last post, that most Japanese are prioritizing safety over environmental concerns. I also suspect many respondents would argue that radiation emmissions from nuclear plants do more damage to the environment than
CO2 emmissions (whether that is the case or not is another question).

Dwelling on the word "forever," there is certainly no reason why giving up nuclear power would mean that Japan will miss these targets forever. Even fairly conservative estimates by METI shows that renewable energy (geothermal, wind, and solar), even at current technological levels, cannot only replace the electricity produced by nuclear power, but replace Japan's current electricity production several times over. Getting to these levels is a matter of many years, even decades, but that's no where near "forever."

Paul Midford
Norwegian University for Science and Technology