Thanks Paul!

Just a quick explanation of the Arab example I cited and what it really comes from. I had actually planned to mention the view of American democracy in the era of pluralist scholarship 50 years ago that concluded Americans who didn't vote and didn't participate in politics were content, and only those who had an axe to grind would participate, explaining low turnout levels that concerned the researchers of the time. The problem with this view was the absence of the collective action insight -- people may well see no point in taking individual action to achieve goals that actually require massive joint action, but their inaction does not mean that they are delighted with what they take no action to change.

But I thought the Arab example was more freshly current, and we actually do know more than you might think. I've been dangerously addicted to following the Libyan and Syrian revolutions for the past year (chronicles at the level of individuals), so actually have encountered quite a good deal of evidence that democracy is really what an enormous number of these rebels want (and that goal is also the reason that ex-pats who left for political reasons have returned now to help). But I agree that it will be a while before anyone can do any systematic surveying to find out what portion of the population we might be talking about or what the content of their
definition of "democracy" might be. But it is a
terrific example of how
people won't make the effort while the goal seems hopeless and will throw their very lives into the struggle when it begins to look as if they
(collectively) might succeed. Risking death for a hopeless goal is stupid and pointless. Risking death for a goal that might be achieved (after or even because of one's death) may look worthwhile. That's exactly what countless members of the Libyan FF and the Syrian FSA say when interviewed (and they also talk about democracy vs plutocratic dictatorship too).

Jeff wondered how I might use rational choice to see the controversy over nuclear energy in Japan right now.
Only one simple quick thought about one dimension of this right now (I am on a plane to Tokyo in a few hours so I should really be packing!). The Japanese movement against restoration of nuclear power is similar to the case above -- long after individual community-based movements fought over individual plants, we now have a nationwide movement fighting against startup at each and every plant, and I suspect that's because people who have been against nuclear energy all along now feel there is a chance to stop it. This case illustrates how (a) raw preferences plus (b) observations about the actions of others (where joint action is required for the goal in question) plus (c) statistical odds of success will combine to generate choices about behavior.

I shall rejoin the conversation in a couple of days from Tokyo!

Best,
Meg McKean