In reply to Rick Katz

It maybe a Kahneman effect, but I was so irritated by Rick's dismissal of Mueller whom he hasn't read and whom I consider one of the most clear-headed political scientists in the United States that I may have broken our record of friendly dailogue by being ruder than I should.

On Chernobyl, At the time of the 2005 report, as Mulller said, 50 or so certain deaths were reported.
The report said that there might eventually be
4,000 deaths, most of them still in the future after 20 years, without saying how many life-shortening years that implied, but stressing that the psychological effects of not having accurate informtion about how much physical damage they might have received was causing more distress than the physical effects themselves. The next year, on the 20th anniversary of the accident, the DG of WHOissued a statement, primrily intended to evoke bigger contributions for the reahabiliation activies, made the same point about information and the psychological effects, but for unclear reasons -- he did not report any new investigations -- unpdated the 4,000 estimate to 9,000.
I still think that Rick's giving the larger numbers without sceptical exmination of their basis is "feeding Japan's nuclear phobia".

To Paul Midford who says that the nuclear phobia had receded by 1960, as revealed in public opinon surveys supporting neculear generation, I was talking not only about feelings of fear/epectation/indifference/towards
nuclear generation or nuclear weapons in general, but specificlly about nimbyism. Not in my back yard. It is without doubt that the "bribes" that were /had to be?
offered to local communitie to accept nculear generation sites, were far greater than in France or Britain or Korea.

Anyway, the disaaster of eternal hatsuden haishi (no more nuclear
generation) seems not as probable as I have predicted in previous postings.
The Noda government has bestirred itself and may get a generator back working in Osaka next month.

Ron Dore