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March 31, 2012
[SSJ: 7334] Re: A couple of reasons why the electricityhas keptflowing despite the nuclear shutdowns
From: Ron Dore
Date: 2012/03/31
Richard Katz writes, a propos of my citing John Mueller's arguing that the effects of Chernobyl were not as bad as usually described:
I assume that Ron has cited Mueller completely. If so, then Mueller has engaged in exactly the sort of deceptive misreporting that I decried in an earlier post, whether it comes from the pro- and anti-nuke side.
Look: we all tend to be more impressed by statements of non-refutable facts that provide arguments for our gut-feelings, but "deceptive misreporting" is going a bit far. Let me say (some would say "confess") that my own gut feeling is that the present level of nuclear phobia in Japan is disastrous and that unless they get those reactors restarted soon, the cost to the Japanese people via the costs to the economy are going to be pretty high.
Not to mention global warming which all Japan's environmentalists used to be so preoccupied with. (I gather that the reason I was sacked as a columnist by the Tokyo Shinbun after 22 years was that I said this in a column last
fall.)
So, I read with a different eye from Rick the WHO report which I am grateful to him for leading me to. I take off my hat to him as a digger out of sources.
First, one thing about the expected eventual total of 2,200 deaths from radiation,(most of which were still in the future 20 years later) they do not seem to have estimated how premature those deaths would be: how many life-years lost.
Other bits of the report which struck my eye were:
"This was a very serious accident with major health consequences, especially for thousands of workers exposed in the early days who received very high radiation doses, and for the thousands more stricken with thyroid cancer. By and large, however, we have not found profound negative health impacts to the rest of the population in surrounding areas, nor have we found widespread contamination that would continue to pose a substantial threat to human health, within a few exceptional, restricted areas."
"About 4000 cases of thyroid cancer, mainly in children and adolescents at the time of the accident, have resulted from the accident's contamination and at least nine children died of thyroid cancer; however the survival rate among such cancer victims, judging from experience in Belarus, has been almost 99%.
Most emergency workers and people living in contaminated areas received relatively low whole body radiation doses, comparable to natural background levels. As a consequence, no evidence or likelihood of decreased fertility among the affected population has been found, nor has there been any evidence of increases in congenital malformations that can be attributed to radiation exposure.
Poverty, "lifestyle" diseases now rampant in the former Soviet Union and mental health problems pose a far greater threat to local communities than does radiation exposure.
Relocation proved a "deeply traumatic experience" for some 350,000 people moved out of the affected areas.
Although 116 000 were moved from the most heavily impacted area immediately after the accident, later relocations did little to reduce radiation exposure.
Persistent myths and misperceptions about the threat of radiation have resulted in "paralyzing fatalism" among residents of affected areas."
That paralyzing fatalism is the real threat, not just around Fukushima number one but in Kasumigaseki and Nagata-cho too. Rick is right in his earlier posts about the low probability of the reactors restarting.
I gather that in the Cabinet and the jikan-kaigi preceding them which thankfully have been restarted, the lone voice calling for serious efforts to restart the reactors is that of the foreign office which needs to live up to its international treaties about exchange of nuclear knowledge and materials. Meti is completely demoralised and does nothing but apologise for the failure of its safety agency.
And if Noda wants to do it, he would really need to get serious. Nuclear nimbyism was overcome in the original siting decisions by what some would call bribes -- promises of magnificent sports ground, assembly halls, new hospitals, rebuilt schools etc. -- but which I would call a reasonable payment for accepting a risk in the general public interest. But what can the government do to persuade the over-agitated local communities to accept restarting in these days of financial stringency and the predominance of the "bridges to nowhere" mythology? A tough job, but they should at least try.
One more quotation from the report if I may claim the moderator's indulgence for what is already an over-long message,
The report labels the mental health impact of Chernobyl as "the largest public health problem created by the accident" and partially attributes this damaging psychological impact to a lack of accurate information.
These problems manifest as negative self-assessments of health, belief in a shortened life expectancy, lack of initiative, and dependency on assistance from the state.
"Two decades after the Chernobyl accident, residents in the affected areas still lack the information they need to lead the healthy and productive lives that are possible,"
Ronald Dore
Approved by ssjmod at 11:41 AM