To Richard Katz:

Thanks for interesting posts deriving from Kahneman's work and the 3 possible "blame scenarios." But I think they confuse the tsunami with the nuclear problem at Fukushima. A tsunami that big had not been prepared for because no one predicted an earthquake that big and such a tsunami hadn't occurred for 1000 years. Do you prepare for a once/1000 year disaster? Possibly but hard to blame authorities for not spending taxpayer money on an occurrence so rare. After all the largest earthquake in the US occurred in 1811 in Missouri (so large it rang churchbells in Boston!). One there can occur more frequently than once/1000 years yet you don't see US government spending a lot of money preparing for another one there.

The nuclear power plants are quite a different issue.
Placing several together like Fukushima was irresponsible and reckless and placing them that near the coast can also be criticized. Then the TEPCO-government relationship etc. So I think your scenarios may have to be re-written to have separate ones for the tsunami and the nuclear disaster and the outcomes may be different in these cases.

Best regards,
Ellis
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Ellis S. Krauss, Professor,