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March 1, 2012

[SSJ: 7236] Re: A couple of reasons why the electricity has keptflowing despite the nuclear shutdowns

From: Dr. Paul J. Scalise
Date: 2012/03/01

It is certainly true that nuclear power has long-term problems to solve with the reprocessing and storage of irradiated fuel. It is also true that there are legitimate concerns involving nuclear weapons proliferation (though I doubt those concerns really apply to Japan) and the risks posed by natural disasters and terrorism, but the hard choices and trade-offs in selecting a suitable energy mix for Japan without nuclear power is not an easy one and I am fascinated by Forum members who pretend that it is.

Electricity-especially on-grid electricity-is not a commodity that can be safely stored; it is a product that requires a careful real-time balance between supply and demand in order to work effectively without blackouts. Anyone interested in cross-national comparisons of renewable energy development in Europe versus Japan needs to account for more than just simplistic energy policy differences; we need to begin with the basic laws of physics aided by differences in geography, industrial growth, per-capita population density, resource endowments, and of course power market technology and design before we begin to ascribe assumed interests and motives to actors (especially when the proof is so anecdotal).

At the risk of repeating the obvious: Japan is not Continental Europe or the United States. It is a densely populated, resource poor industrial giant, cut off from the rest of Asia's much cheaper electric power supplies (no super-grid) and riddled with transmission & distribution inconsistencies (e.g., the 50Hz/60Hz frequency mismatch). Japan's already high electricity prices, growing debt problems, and national budget constraints in choosing between increased energy subsidies for energy development or other pet projects are only the tip of the iceberg; they have the more pressing problem of bringing the existing nuclear power plants back online in the short- to medium-term or face the consequences of the power sources that could realistically replace them.

Those "realistic" power sources are unfortunately only those with a high carbon footprint that also carry risks in polluting the environment: fossil fuels that can serve as either what engineers call "base-load" or "mid-load" power sources such as coal, LNG, LPG, or other gases. We are already seeing the negative consequences of the nuclear power plants remaining
offline: Japan's imported LNG and coal volumes have been rising steadily since 3.11, pushing up their import prices, increasing the operating expenses of power companies, threatening an increase in power prices nationwide (again), accelerating the list of reasons for industry to leave Japan, cutting into the free cash flows of power companies that allows for compensation payment to those affected by the nuclear crisis, and of course damaging any chances of Japan complying with its Kyoto Protocol obligations.

In fact, one of the most interesting studies I have viewed recently came from Credit Suisse economists Hiromichi Shirakawa and Takashi Shiono. Upon reviewing the data, they concluded that "high energy prices have been the main factor behind the increase in import value, explaining roughly a half of the deterioration in the trade balance from 4Q 2010 through 4Q 2011."

Meanwhile, renewable energy activists seem to put the cart before the horse, first by being anti-nuclear as an ideology, and then pro-renewable as an abstract agenda alternative. Testunari Iida has gone on record to state that Japan can somehow (he is always vague) produce 100% of its electric power from renewables like wind and solar (NB: he has since backtracked and now claims only 40% is possible.) I admire his passion, but I remain unconvinced. Aside from renewable energy's still prohibitive cost per kWh, it is almost as if Iida et al. hesitate to acknowledge basic engineering realities like "intermittency," "dispatchability," "low utilization rates," "network frequency mismatches,"
"base-load vs. peak-load power generation" and the clear legal responsibilities inherent in fueling economic growth while simultaneously adhering to "universal service" and "eminent domain."

Perhaps someday these constraints will be corrected, but it is not today.
Sometimes the wind refuses to blow, the sun refuses to shine, and the tides (though predictable) cannot be changed to meet sudden demand spikes during the day.
Therefore, electric power companies cannot quickly "dispatch" the power to needed on-grid areas within seconds. This is a huge problem not only in Japan, but also in Germany and elsewhere that creates additional (and unnecessary) costs and burdens to the grid system.To offset these counter-productive problems, industrial economies require sufficient ways to prevent non-dispatched renewable energies from creating unintended blackouts. They need interlocking super-grids, steady transmission and distribution networks, high reserve margins, extensive power current inverters, and relatively low electricity tariffs.

While Germany and Denmark (for example) have some of these things, Japan has none of them.

So what should Japan do? The answer is not clench one's fist, formulate conspiracy theories, and spit at the heavens. The answer is to ask the public what it really wants.

Unfortunately, it seems clear that Japanese consumers - like all consumers - selfishly want it all and are unwilling to choose between the economy, the environment, and energy security. I suspect most Japanese voters when forced to think about the numerous trade-offs and negative externalities involved would hesitate before responding, and perhaps not even respond at all.

I do not envy Japanese policymakers in the coming years.

Paul J. Scalise, Ph.D.
JSPS Research Fellow
Institute of Social Science
The University of Tokyo

Approved by ssjmod at 11:33 AM