Thanks to Paul for his response to my post. I think we both agree that personal appeal of PM is not necessarily the only or perhaps even not the most important factor in elections. I would argue, however that it has become a major factor and much more important than in the past.Some responses to some of
his:

> The only thing I would quibble about a bit is Mori:
he really was an
> exceptionally unpopular PM from day one.
> According to TV Asahi, his highest rating was his
first, 33.9% support
> versus 37.8% opposition in May
> 2000.
ESK: Yes I agree that Mori was not popular but actually 33% was a higher rating than many pre-reform PMs received usually. The difference is that the relative unpopularity accounted for much more after reform in terms of a factor in an election than before reform.
Plus one thing I don't think we've mentioned before is that politicians seem to feel it counts for a heck of a lot in elections these days. Otherwise, why would so many post-reform PMs be removed from office by their own parties once they became unpopular before elections? Clearly they think it counts a lot.

> That said, I would also add the caveat that the
shijiritsu does not
> necessarily only reflect the PM's personal
popularity. After all, the
> standard question does not ask respondents if they
support the Koizumi
> or Noda PM, but whether they support the Koizumi or
Noda cabinet. The
> follow-up to that question gives respondents a chance
to indicate
> whether their support or non-support has to do with
the quality of the
> PM or other reasons.

ESK: Yes, we agree this is not a perfect question at all and wish we had better data. But support for a PM's cabinet IS, as you know taken as a stand-in for the PM's popularity with some, although i agree not necessarily great, reason: few Japanese know any of the other persons in the cabinet or care much about them unless they are representatives from their own district, and since the PM represents the party and its policies, he is the person that reflects how the voters feel about what kind of leader he is and where he will lead the party and the government.

Best regards,
Ellis
************************************************
Ellis S. Krauss, Professor,
School of International Relations and Pacific Studies University of California, San Diego La Jolla, CA