Thanks to Jun Okumura for his detailed response to my comments about Japan's energy policy and especially its grid.

"First, the winter peak load is usually
significantly lower than the summer peak load. And if memory serves me correctly, the coldest spells usually hit Japan in January or early February, so we're likely already out of the woods."

It's true that the winter peak in energy consumption is typically not as high as the summer peak, yet this has been an exceptionally cold winter and Kansai got through it with only a single reactor, and now with no reactor.

I would argue that this sends a signal that Japan can do without nuclear power, even in the short-run, and even in the winter. The estimate that Japan can get through the summer without nuclear power is Edano's and METI's, not mine, but even if Jun's pessimism on this point is warranted, what would that mean in real terms?
The Prime Minister would override local governments and order the restart of 2 or 3 nuclear power reactors for the summer months? One could argue that once one reactor restarts they all restart and its back to the
pre-3-11 world, but I am not sure that would be the case. Rather, nuclear power's function might be confined to a summer back-up source for the next two years or so until it's no longer needed. The Yomiuri poll for February showed that a majority of Japanese oppose restarting nuclear plants after they complete regular inspection. That is the first time I have seen such a result. I am a bit skeptical, because the wording did not mention anything about stress tests, and perhaps if it had, support might have been higher.
Nonetheless, this is a big change in public opinion that I would argue is being driven by the demonstration effect of surviving without nuclear power=