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February 16, 2012

[SSJ: 7170] Re: Why Noda is pushing a tax increase

From: Richard Katz
Date: 2012/02/16

The Yomiuri article on Hashimoto's 8 policies says:


It also fails to clarify if Osaka Ishin no Kai supports the idea of increasing the consumption tax rate--the nation's biggest pending political issue at the moment....
"Politicians are responsible for presenting which direction the nation should move," the party leader once said. "We should first present what the public pension system would be like. A decision on the consumption tax rate should be made last."
.... Moreover, the working draft does not present a clear stance on the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station


Paul Midford wrote:
yesterday's Yomiuri poll: it asked respondents if they thought that the LDP should discuss the consumption tax increase with the ruling parties, and in response 72% answered they should, while a mere 20% answered that they should not, so clearly the LDP [is losing] public support for being "obstructionist."... So perhaps Noda is having some success cornering the LDP.


The LDP is well aware that its obstructionism has long been hurting it in the polls. But its view seems to be that, as long as it hurts the DPJ more than it hurts them, then it's okay. So, they look at the consistent fall in Noda's approval rating--now below the red line of 30% in several polls--and take heart. Moreover, in the Yomiuri poll, when voters were asked which party they'd vote for in the PR section of the next LH election, only 15% named the DPJ, compared to 21% for the LDP and another 4% for its ally, the Komeito. 38% were undecided.

55% opposed the consumption tax hike under Noda's plan while 39% approved.

Only 5% wanted a DPJ-led government and only 9% wanted an LDP-led goverment while 23% wanted a "grand coalition" and 53% wanted "a new framework of govenrment through political realignment." Plague on both your houses is the sentiment. (Personally, I'm with the 53%).

It can certainly be argued that the LDP is misreading the tea leaves. But as long as Tanigaki reads them that way, I don't see why the LDP would be likely to change its strategy of making it impossible for the DPJ to govern. Now, if the polls suddenly shifted in a different direction, then we'd be in a new ballgame.
But so far I don't see how it's a stretch for the LDP to continue believing that the gridlock hurts the incumbents more than the opposition.

It might be different if Noda were able to explain any of his policies to the public, but poll after poll has shown that 80-85% of the public says he has not done so.

Richard Katz
The Oriental Economist Report

Approved by ssjmod at 11:41 AM