I won't get into the debate about which tax should be raised or when, except to say that I agree with Rick that there must be better taxes to raise than the consumption tax. The real estate taxes he mentions sound like a good place to start.

That said, and following up on what I wrote yesterday, it seems that the public is shifting in favor of Noda's consumption tax increase proposal. Today's Asahi had its monthly poll, and this found that 40% now support the government's tax hike proposal, up from 34% last month. Opposition dropped by an even greater margin, from 57% down to 46%. It's interesting to think about what's moving the public. Could it be that Noda is actually being persuasive? Perhaps the public is beginning to see that Noda's proposal is not necessarily so far from their "ideal" consumption tax rise proposal? The same Asahi poll found that a solid 60% of respondents believe the consumption tax must be raised in order to maintain the current social security
system, while only 30% opposed. Moreover, 63% opposed
the idea that a consumption tax increase could be avoided by cutting pensions, versus a mere 20% who supported this idea.

In sum, support for the generic tax increase is still much stronger than for Noda's specific proposal, but the gap is starting to close. Interestingly, 59% of opponents of raising the tax cited a lack of progress in cutting government expenditures as their reason for opposition, up from 27% from the previous month. The February Yomiuri poll, also published today, makes this even clearer. When asked whether the government has done enough to eliminate wasteful spending, a whopping 89% answered no, with only 7% answering yes.

Perhaps this is how some people square supporting tax increases generically while opposing specific tax hike proposals, or perhaps there really is a deep-seated believe in wide spread mudana keihi. Rick is certainly right that mistrust in the Tokyo government is deep-seated. That sentiment is certainly what
Mina-no-tou* is basing its political strategy on, as is Genzei Nippon and perhaps Hashimoto. In answer to Rick's point about Hashimoto not taking a clear position on the tax increase, I am basing my assumption that he would not support an increase on the fact that Mina-no-tou is claiming that Hashimoto's platform is identical to theirs, and so far I have not seen anyone challenge that claim. Also, he seems very much in tune with the anti-bureaucracy line of tax hike opponents.

Best,

Paul Midford

* Am I the only one who thinks that Mina-no-tou is a blatant misnomer? For the sake of truth in advertising, shouldn't the party be called "Komuin igai Minna no tou?"