The end of July is probably not the best time to ask a question or start a debate, but I can't restrain myself any longer. Today I happened to see the following
article:
http://www.npr.org/2011/07/27/138617568/in-japan-holdin
g-onto-political-reins-proves-elusive. I have posed the essay/exam question 'How democratic is Japan?' to students a few times over the years, but with the victory of the DPJ in the 2009 LH election, I had wondered if that question was becoming a bit redundant. Who could now see Japan as anything but as normally democratic as 'Western democracies' (though we are well aware of the shortcomings of democracy in many if not all countries so labelled)? But guess what? The question is back! Good news for those who want to set a simple, provocative question to undergraduates, if not anyone else.

I don't actually want to ask that question on this forum (though I suspect many ordinary Japanese voters might see it as justified). But as I have been trying to keep half an eye on Japanese politics over the last few months, I have found it quite hard not to think, 'What the heck is going on? Are Japan's politicians (especially in the DPJ) trying to challenge the US for the gold medal for Political Dysfunctionality at the 2012 Olympics?' And when I search forums like East Asia Forum, or SSJ, or blogs like that of Tobias Harris, I find very little analysis. Perhaps everyone else is as stunned and bewildered at the current state of Japan's politics as I am (or just 'akireteiru', like the friend I had dinner with last night, and I suspect about 95 percent of Japanese voters).

There are, no doubt, legitimate criticisms that could be levelled at Kan. In the NPR article above, Gerald Curtis suggests he has lost touch with reality, which may well be true. (Though I can't help wondering what being in touch with reality means in Japanese politics at the moment.) But after all, he has been elected leader of his party not once, but twice, and yet his DPJ 'comrades' still want to dump him for A.N.Other. Given the way things have gone in Japanese politics over the last few years, it is hard to see why Kan's successor should have any chance of lasting any longer or accomplishing any more, though.

So the first question. Why has the DPJ proved so incompetent in government? Is it (a) an inevitable consequence of its lack of cohesion around any ideology, set of policies, or political principles? (b) the result of an inadequate internal power and policymaking structure? (c) a contingent outcome of the regrettable existence of certain powerful and destructive individuals within its ranks? (d) a mixture of all three? (e) Other (fill in the blank)?

Second question (linked to the first). Is there a realistic prospect of the DPJ improving its competence?
Why/why not?

Third question. Is there a reasonable prospect in the foreseeable future of a relatively strong government that can last for several years and carry out its political programme? Why/why not? If not, to what extent is this due to the failings of the DPJ and LDP, and to what extent is it due to the inherent problems of the current constitutional arrangements (i.e. the prospect of endless 'nejire kokkai')?

I can't say that I feel very optimistic about any change for the better. To my mind, the failures of the DPJ raise the question of whether a party which is not centred in either a coherent ideology/policy principles or has a history that attracts loyalty can succeed for long (anywhere, not just in Japan). Talk of realignments and grand coalitions are all very well, but a grand coalition can only be a short-term fix, and I wonder what a realignment might leave us with. I don't see any serious possibilities other than a new 1955 system with one more or less unbeatable catch-all super-party, or a sort of DPJ-LDP reprise with no better prospects of strong and coherent government than exist at present.

Peter Cave
Lecturer in Japanese Studies
University of Manchester=