**NOTE: this posting was sent in on March 14th**

The scale of destruction and human suffering from the earthquake and tsunami is overwhelming. My first reaction is to send out prayers and best wishes to all those afflicted. However, it's then worth considering how politics will affect disaster relief and vice versa.

While waiting for the return of geological stability, the national priority on economic and social recovery suggests that Japan will put a premium on leadership stability to expedite recovery. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, you fight disasters with the government have, not the one you may wish you have. As long as Kan is seen to be doing a competent job, and so far he seems to be doing a very competent job on disaster relief, attempts to force him into calling snap elections will likely be put off for a while. How could Japan hold an early lower house election in the midst of such destruction and chaos? Again, unless Kan is seen to be doing a clearly incompetent job at disaster relief, his support ratings will likely increase, and possibly support for the DPJ as well. This should also discourage opposition attempts to corner Kan, especially since the opposition would likely get blamed for depriving Japan of a government in the midst of an national emergency. An election would be difficult and distract from disaster relief, and having a new seiken kotai and the formation of a new cabinet could distract from disaster relief and rebuilding, or at least appear to do so.

Already, the LDP and other opposition parties are signaling a willingness to cooperate with the DPJ on funding a supplemental budget for disaster relief. Kan might even be able to leverage this into an agreement on raising the debt ceiling, since the supplementary budget and disaster relief expenses incurred in the meantime make this a much more immediate problem. He might have to make some concessions on some DPJ platform issues such as child subsidies and highway tolls, but with the national emergency as a justification it seems less likely that either voters or opposition parties (or Ozawa supporters) will blame the Kan for dropping parts of the DPJ manifesto. For all these reasons I think the chances are growing that Kan will be able to navigate his way through the budget showdown that was looming, possibly giving him as much as another year in the big chair before the opposition would have another clear shot at using budget enabling bills to try to force a snap election.

Finally, we should remember that timing can be everything in politics, and this would not be the first time in recent history that an earthquake appeared to change the course of Japanese politics. The Hanshin earthquake happened on the very day in January 1995 when Ozawa was planning to announce a new party with a significant number of Socialist Party defectors. Had he been able to announce his party on that day with the Socialist defectors he might have been able to bring down the LDP-Socialist Coalition in 1995, thereby changing significantly the subsequent course of Japanese politics.

Foreign disaster relief efforts will also be significant. Disaster relief is becoming increasingly important as an implicit tool of public diplomacy, albeit with the benefit that nations compete with each other to help disaster victims. With the US dispatching ships, including an aircraft carrier, and most notably helicopters from Futenma and Marines from Okinawa heading to Tohoku, one cannot help but wonder whether their service will soften opposition to the Nago relocation in Okinawa? A major political milestone could be realized if China dispatches troops to Japan for the first time for disaster relief, or even just its new deluxe hospital ship that has recently been touring Africa dispensing free medical care. A South Korean military dispatch would also be an important milestone.

Best Wishes,

Paul Midford