A different way of trying to answer Jim Babb's questions on the "lag" between
urbanization and reforms might be to ask who organized the urban voters and what
happened within the LDP in the 1980s.

If the increase in urban koenkai's are of any helpful indication of organizing
"personal votes," it seems that Komeito and Socialists might have been as
successful as the LDP. Thus it might have taken a while after the end of
urbanization for LDP-Komeito or LDP-Socialist collaboration to naturalize, as a
condition to pass the bill.

I think that strengthening of LDP-Komeito relations in the legislature during
the 1980s and/or the changes in the political orientations of the unions might
have constituted preconditions for a cross government-opposition alliance in
favor of electoral reform to emerge.

Also, one might have to look into the increased organizational rigidity of the
LDP in the 1980s that produced junior politicians looking for an opportunity to
"change things."

Such intermediate variables might explain the delay. In that case, I think we
should examine closely the fact that electoral reform had opponents in both the
LDP and Socialists and that the reform might have been a compromise for even its
supporters (such as Komeito and Shinseito).

However, the problem with this explanation, I admit, is that it expects the
coexistence of "personal voting" and large numbers of uncommitted voters in the
urban areas to continue, unless there are drastic organizational changes in
major parties (maybe in response to changes in the electoral system, but maybe
not). Thus there might emerge a two party system that mobilize voters
predominantly on personal votes and not on policy alternatives (again with a
large reservoir of non-partisan voters).

Just a thought..

Nobuhiro Hiwatari