Who is a typical PM would be difficult to answer, I think even in the British
case. Macmillan? Wilson? Heath? Certainly not Thatcher, I assume. And if we
regard Macmillan and Sato-Ikeda years as "typical" that might be the result of
things fading into history.

Coming off the top of my head, another way to address the question in the
Japanese context might be to ask what happens if the PM tries to introduce his
"personal" policies against bureaucratic reluctance/opposition, as opposed to
the PM carrying out bureaucratic agendas. Apart from Nakasone's educational
reform, Sato's Okinawa, Tanaka's China, Miki's Anti-monopoly law come to mind.
The relation between Thatcher and the Treasury in the early 1980s might be a
good comparison. The problem is differenes in historical context, but the merit
is there are studies on each of the Japanese cases listed above.

Nobuhiro Hiwatari

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From: nhiwatar[atx]cfia.harvard.edu (Hiwatari, Nobuhiro) Date: 19 Aug 95

Having read recent posts on UK-Japan comparison, I was wondering if anyone can
help me on a paper (actually I've just it sent out but must be revised in the
near future to avoid embarrassment) which is woefully unsatisfactory because I
couldn't find good data on Japan.

What I am interested is that, although policy cleavages seem to be reinforced
despite Thatcherite policy reforms in the UK, whether the same can be said of
Japan on the effects of the Nakasone-Gyokaku-Rincho reforms.

Studies by Ivor Crewe, Philip Norton, Paul Whiteley, Patrick Seyd, and Jeremy
Richardson, of both the electorate in large and members of both parties, seem to
indicate that Thatcherite policies/ideology never became dominant in either the
Conservatives or the voters but that there is more of a reaction or
counter-mobilization to Thatcher's position.

Survey research in Japan as far as I skimmed (the volumes of NHK Seron Chosa
Shiryo Shu, and the Seron Chosa Nenkan--which cites most surveys done by news
agencies) do not ask questions in terms of policy/political choices (more
welfare or less taxes? kind of thing). "What kind of government do you want in
the near future" was the only one I found that asked for choices between LDP
rule, LDP coalition, opposition coalition, etc.. Interestingly here there is a
clear divide in the mid-1970s. Prior to that any coalition government, even an
LDP coalition government was seen as an alternative to LDP rule, whereas after
that any LDP coalition is seen as a substitute for LDP rule.

Anyway, I wonder if anyone knows of data that asks the Japanese electorate to
choose between incompatible alternatives. I hope this probe is not totally
irrelevant to the ongoing discussion since it seems to me the lack of PM
leadership, and the confusion surrounding his statements, is one way of avoiding
policy/political cleavages and without such cleavages it is hard to imagine what
would the new "two party system" (provided one will develop) is going to compete
over.

Nobuhiro Hiwatari

[Moderator's Note: Please send responses to the above question directly to
Professor Hiwatari.]