« [SSJ: 138] Shingikai and Bureaucracy | Main | [SSJ: 140] Japan-US Comparisons »
July 20, 1995
[SSJ: 139] July 23 Upper House Elections
From: Stephen J Anderson
Posted Date: 1995/07/20
[Moderator's Note: The following was posted from another list, but may be of interest to SSJ-FORUM members.]
>What's the average share of the Japanese electorate that actually votes, and has this share changed since the demise of the LDP?
Voter turnout has dropped gradually throughout the postwar period, with the last two Upper House elections receiving 65.01% in 1989 (consumption tax protest) and 50.70% in 1992 according to Seijihandobukko No. 30. The forecast is for well below 50% turnout of eligible voters on Sunday. I think only the weather will be a major factor now; if it rains or shines, perhaps 45% will vote, but maybe if the weather is threatening, then people will make no plans and yet go to vote, thus pushing up turnout by a bit.
>Do the events surrounding Aum have an impact on voter behavior?
Not so much, except as part of the long-term problems of a coalition headed by a socialist. The Kobe earthquake, where both the governor and the prime minister were part of Nihonshakaito [Socialists], was a bigger factor showing that even with the socialists at the top, they were ineffective in handling a crisis and responding to citizen's needs. Disillusionment with Murayama would have been complete, except for his eventual "decisiveness" in sending in shock teams to disarm the hijacker at Hakodate. Once people discovered that the hijacker had only a screwdriver, there was less credit given to the Murayama Administration although they managed to survive that visible crisis.
The Sunday election is not even seen as a judgement of Murayama because there is no alternative to him until a Lower House election is called. The initial reaction, and continued reality, is that Sunday will become known as the "Mukanshin" (Uninteresting) election.
--One more addition: I used to enjoy the antics of the PR mini-parties in these Upper House races, but this time has been little fun. I watched the PR shots for the top three contending parties: Shinseito [Shinshinto?] split its time between Hosokawa (he is good on TV) and Hata (he was terrible, read all of his stuff); Nihonshakaito gave the spot to Shokicho [Secretary General] Kubo Wataru with HC member Chiba Keiko from Kanagawa-ken (the party's over); and Jiminto [LDP] let Kono Yohei talk with a cute free-lance announcer (Kono stole the show). I was impressed by Kono's appeal, even with its conservative streak for women to stay home with the family, because Kono did well at being sincere on TV.
However, the death of Kono's wife this week may steal even that small streak of enthusiasm from what has been the most dull campaign in my memory of the past two decades.
Stephen Anderson
Center for Global Communications
International University of Japan
Personal Home Page on World Wide Web:
URL=http://www.glocom.ac.jp/Personnel/sja/sjahp/sjahp.html
Approved by ssjmod at 12:00 AM