As I look at the currenct political scene in Japan, I see a lot more evidence for the "politics make strange bedfellows" hypothesis than for the "people will sort themselves out" hypothesis.

Few candidates seem to see a great difference between the two parties. Many candidates who fail to get the LDP nomination will wind up running for the NFP.
This is a touchy business because one would not want one's political expediency to appear to be political expediency, but there is little in the way of policy to prevent people from switching. One trade was even discussed, Ozawa asking Watanabe to let a Watanabe-faction member to run for the NFP. It didn't happen, but that it could be discussed indicated the distance between the two parties.

Discussions of ho-ho-rengo (LDP-NFP cooperation) continue is various places and forms. Some of the ex-LDP NFP'ers seem uncomfortable with their ex-opposition party NFP'ers, and vice versa.

My question: is there data to support the sorting out hypothesis, or is it just a deduction? Are there any examples in political history? I can think of the corn laws in England, going from no parties to sorted out parties. US realignments might fit to some degree, but US parties have seldom been well sorted out.

Perhaps it is a matter of degree but I am betting that the LDP and NFP retain a full range of opinion inside each party for the foreseeable future.

SReed.