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December 16, 2012

[SSJ: 7891] Event (Dec. 19): North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programme in a changing political environment

From: Joshua Cader
Date: 2012/12/16

Dear All,

Mr. Benoit Hardy-Chartrand has recently provided analysis for CBC and BBC radio concerning the North Korean missile/satellite launch. Please join us for what promises to be an interesting presentation, followed by discussion. All are welcome.

Time/Place:

Wednesday, December 19th, 6:30pm (until 8:00pm approx.)

Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University Nishi-Waseda Bldg. (Building #19), 1-21-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku-ku Room 712 For directions, please see:
http://www.waseda.jp/gsaps/info/traffic_en.html

Title:

North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programme in a changing political
environment: regime stability and future perspectives

Speaker:

Benoit Hardy-Chartrand, research fellow at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies in Montreal, Canada, where he specializes on North Korean affairs.
He has obtained a Master's degree in International Relations from the University of Quebec in Montreal and wrote his thesis on securitization in North Korea.

Presentation summary:

After the demise of Kim Jong-Il in December 2011, political leaders and observers the world over pondered over what path would be followed by his untested and western- educated son Kim Jong-Un. Could he reform the North Korean system and bring the country out of its isolation? While cautious optimism prevailed after the new regime struck a deal with the United States in February 2012, hopes were quickly dashed when North Korea announced that it would launch a satellite in April, which was widely viewed as a long-range missile test. While the April launch failed, North Korea succeeded in putting satellite into space on 12 December 2012, thus raising the stakes in the nuclear standoff. With an expanding nuclear arsenal and missile capabilities, complete denuclearisation of North Korea increasingly appears to be an elusive possibility.

While the Kim Jong-Un regime seems unlikely in the short term to stray from the "military-first" path that had been trodden by his father, could political transitions in neighbouring countries have an impact on Korean and regional security? China underwent a leadership change in November and both South Korea and Japan will be holding general elections before the end of 2012.

This presentation will provide an analysis Kim Jong-Un's first year in power and discuss the possibility of reform in North Korea in the midst of a changing North East Asian political landscape. It will argue that with new leaders in China, South Korea and Japan, we will see in 2013 attempts at reinvigorating the security dialogue with Pyongyang, despite the latter's apparent unwillingness to yield any leverage on the nuclear front.

For more information, please contact Joshua Cader (jcader[at]gmail.com).

Approved by ssjmod at 11:54 AM