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September 26, 2012
[SSJ: 7770] Re: New Article on Asahi Shimbun on Sino-Japanese maritimedisputes and the risk of war in the East China Sea
From: Patalano, Alessio
Date: 2012/09/26
I would like to thank both Ron Dore and Thomas Berger for their comments.
One quick point of clarification and one additional consideration to Thomas contribution below.
In the article I didm't mean to be pessimistic about Sino-Japanese relations. If anything, all those who had a chance to attend one the public lectures I gave in Tokyo a couple of weeks ago would be to attest that my intention is really to highlight the potential for dialogue and diplomacy to defuse the current tensions.
What I referred to in the article, on the other hand, is the idea that the East China Sea is today an area where, for reasons related to resources, trade, and projection of power, both China and Japan have increasingly stronger interests. As such, we will continue to hear in the forceable future about issues related to the East China Sea - whether because a flotilla is sailing through to reach an area for exercises and manoeuvres, or gas fields should be explored and tapped into, or indeed for reasons pertaining to fishing activities in EEZs, or sovereign rights over off-shore islands.
Now, this doesn't mean that all of the security aspects of the East China Sea will bring about competition and escalation of tensions. The 2008 agreement over Chunxiau/Shirakaba for a cooperative approach to its exploration is just one example of cooperative actions taking place between Japan and China. Discussions over fishery agreements would also contribute to create a basic framework to contribute to keep tensions under control.
I certainly agree with Thomas that at the moment both international and especially domestic factors are making constructive courses of action very difficult to be taken. And I tend to agree with Thomas that the atmosphere in Tokyo was very different during these past weeks than in Beijing (I happened to be in Beijing when the protests started and then landed in Tokyo as they evolved).
Given the political transition in China and Japan at the moment, the options opened to the two governments in terms of the question of the sovereignty of the Senkaku'Diaoyu Islands were limited, especially for Beijing.
On the other hand, it might well be that 2013 will be the time for a fresh start.
Again, Thomas made a very good point stressing that over the past few days there were elements of an opening from the Japanese side - good signs in the right direction.
best wishes,
Alessio
Dr Alessio Patalano
Department of War Studies
King's College London
alessio.patalano[at]kcl.ac.uk
New book by Alessio Patalano, 'Maritime Strategy and National Security in Japan and Britain: From the First Alliance to Post 9/11' now out by Brill/Global Oriental!
check it out at:
http://www.brill.nl/maritime-strategy-and-national-security-japan-and-britain
Approved by ssjmod at 11:18 AM