I agree with Ron Dore that it does no good to be overly pessimistic about the Sino-Japanese situation, but I differ somewhat from him on two points.

First, while we have had many bad spells in Sino-Japanese relations since at least the early 1980s, this time really is different, for reasons having to do both with the international situation and with the domestic politics of the two countries.

Internationally, the balance of power is shifting in ways that could destabilize the region. China is much stronger than it ever was, including in terms of naval strength, Japan is much weaker, and the US commitment to the region - or ability to commit to the region - is perceived as being weaker.

Domestically, both China and Japan are vulnerable to nationalist pressures more than in the past. The pluralization of the Chinese political system and increased sensitivity of political leaders to public opinion means that no leader wants to look weak on this issue.
In Japan, the weakness of political parties and the decline of the MOFA's ability to set the political agenda is making it much more difficult for a rational steering of Japanese foreign policy. We saw this already with the abductee issue(ratchimondai) and the
2005 Shenyang incident involving North Korean refugees.
The recent turmoil surrounding the Senkaku/Diaoyutai as well as the Dokdo/Takeshima and Southern Kurils/Northern territory disputes are extensions of this trend.

As a result, we are entering a potentially dangerous, crisis prone period in Japan's foreign relations with not only China, but also Korea and Russia. Unless a new diplomatic framework can be found for dealing with territorial issues, the possibility for militarized disputes with potentially catastrophic consequences becomes a reality.

Secondly, I think Ron Dore is being a bit too hard to Japan. If this really were the Japan of old, we would have troops on the island right now, Japan would be quietly siphoning off plutonium to make nuclear weapons
- possibly in consultation with the US - there would be a sharp spike in defense spending, we would have mass processions of people going down Hibiya dori holding Japanese flags and lanterns, the Uyoku would be roughing up Chinese tourists students and burning down Chinese restaurants. In short, Japan would be behaving in a lot of ways like China is behaving today. At the moment, the Japanese Government is being quite restrained, even though Ishihara Shintaro is in large measure responsible for starting this crisis to begin with.

I agree with Ron Dore, however, that ways have to be found to defuse these tensions. Listening to Chief Cabinet Secretary Fujimura earlier today, I was happy to hear that various efforts are being made behind to scenes to find a diplomatic solution. I fear, however, that such measures can be at best a temporary fix (sono ba no shinogi) unless a more durable and open framework is found.

Thomas U Berger
Boston University
Visiting Associate Professor, Keio University